JAKK

JAKKS PacificB

Nasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$30.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$26.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$18.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-03

AI commentary

This T+3 follow-up remains a cautious monitoring setup. Primary company sources confirmed a softer Q1 on revenue, margin, and earnings, but also a solid cash position, inventory control, and better international mix. Immediate market reaction was constructive: accessible secondary market data showed JAKK closing at $24.06 on May 1, 2026, up 10.57% from the prior close, and accessible analyst coverage showed only a thin-breadth Buy reiteration at a $30 target rather than a broad revision wave. With low coverage and limited post-print estimate breadth, confidence should stay moderate at best.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-03

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-06-29catalystCash balance and dividend support sentiment, but topline proof is still requiredMedium impact

Cash including restricted cash rose to about $64.0 million at March 31, 2026, inventory fell versus year-end, and the board declared a $0.25 quarterly dividend payable June 29, 2026, which helps downside framing but does not by itself solve the revenue and margin pressure seen in Q1 [#PR-2026-04-30] [#8-K-2026-05-01] [#10-Q-2026-05-01].

2026-07-29eventNext quarter must confirm the U.S. rebuild without further margin erosionHigh impact

Q1 2026 net sales fell 6% year over year, gross margin slipped 100 bps to 33.4%, and adjusted EBITDA turned slightly negative, while management said U.S. customers remain cautious and North America net sales were down 16% even as it said it is rebuilding the disrupted domestic base [#PR-2026-04-30] [#10-Q-2026-05-01].

2026-10-31catalystInternational and Action Play momentum can partially offset weaker Dolls and North AmericaHigh impact

Management said international Q1 sales rose to $29.0 million from $21.0 million and Action Play & Collectibles sales increased to $55.3 million from $42.9 million, while the 10-Q also showed Europe up to $17.4 million from $11.8 million; that mix shift is the clearest operating offset to weaker Dolls/Role-Play and softer U.S. demand [#PR-2026-04-30] [#10-Q-2026-05-01].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology