JAKK

JAKKS PacificA

Nasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$30.00

+37.7% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$26.00

+19.4% vs current

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$18.00

-17.4% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-03

AI commentary

This T+3 follow-up remains a cautious monitoring setup. Primary company sources confirmed a softer Q1 on revenue, margin, and earnings, but also a solid cash position, inventory control, and better international mix. Immediate market reaction was constructive: accessible secondary market data showed JAKK closing at $24.06 on May 1, 2026, up 10.57% from the prior close, and accessible analyst coverage showed only a thin-breadth Buy reiteration at a $30 target rather than a broad revision wave. With low coverage and limited post-print estimate breadth, confidence should stay moderate at best.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-03

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-06-29catalystCash balance and dividend support sentiment, but topline proof is still requiredMedium impact

Cash including restricted cash rose to about $64.0 million at March 31, 2026, inventory fell versus year-end, and the board declared a $0.25 quarterly dividend payable June 29, 2026, which helps downside framing but does not by itself solve the revenue and margin pressure seen in Q1 [#PR-2026-04-30] [#8-K-2026-05-01] [#10-Q-2026-05-01].

2026-07-29eventNext quarter must confirm the U.S. rebuild without further margin erosionHigh impact

Q1 2026 net sales fell 6% year over year, gross margin slipped 100 bps to 33.4%, and adjusted EBITDA turned slightly negative, while management said U.S. customers remain cautious and North America net sales were down 16% even as it said it is rebuilding the disrupted domestic base [#PR-2026-04-30] [#10-Q-2026-05-01].

2026-10-31catalystInternational and Action Play momentum can partially offset weaker Dolls and North AmericaHigh impact

Management said international Q1 sales rose to $29.0 million from $21.0 million and Action Play & Collectibles sales increased to $55.3 million from $42.9 million, while the 10-Q also showed Europe up to $17.4 million from $11.8 million; that mix shift is the clearest operating offset to weaker Dolls/Role-Play and softer U.S. demand [#PR-2026-04-30] [#10-Q-2026-05-01].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology