JACK

Jack in the BoxC

Nasdaq / Consumer Services

Quote time unavailable

Current thesis

The constructive read is that Q2 showed a modest operating EPS beat versus secondary-source consensus, management said trends improved into Q3, and the new interim CEO is explicitly pushing same-store sales, margins, and debt reduction. Post-print reaction from coverage was not uniformly negative: StockAnalysis surfaced a Stifel Hold note with a target increase to $15 from $10.

Posture

Mixed

Lead driver

Value

What changed

Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.

What can break

Balance-sheet risk is still material because the company is managing note prepayments and refinancing against restrictive securitized debt terms flagged in the 10-K [#10-K-2025-11-19].

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $15.00 · Bear $7.50Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.

Data freshness

Prices

Unavailable: Price unavailable

Fundamentals

As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence

What

Grade C · Mixed

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $19.83

Why

Momentum12 · Δ7d +0.6

Value58 · Δ7d +0.3

Sentiment57 · Δ7d +11.3

So what

Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

• Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

• Balance-sheet risk is still material because the company is managing note prepayments and refinancing against restrictive securitized debt terms flagged in the 10-K [#10-K-2025-11-19].
• CEO and customer leadership departures create execution risk during a period when the company is also using retention awards to stabilize key executives [#8-K-2026-05-13].
• The bearish read is stronger on primary evidence: sales, transactions, and margins are still falling, guidance still implies a sales decline for FY2026, and closures are set to accelerate.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-13

Q2 print and CEO change reset the near-term thesis

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals

Momentum

8% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

+0.6

Δ21d

-12.2

Value

47% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

+0.3

Δ21d

+0.4

Sentiment

45% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

+11.3

Δ21d

+5.0

Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 12.1 / Value 58.0 / Sentiment 56.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$15.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$11.50

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$7.50

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-10-23

Market Cap

$211.55M

Beta

1.16

Shares Out

19.18M

P/E (TTM) · Derived

2.5

P/S (TTM)

0.24

P/FCF (TTM)

7.37

Rev YoY

-1.8%

EPS YoY

-10.1%

Gross Margin

+25.0%

Op Margin

+15.1%

Net Debt

$3.04B

Current Ratio

0.58

As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data