IT

GartnerD

NYSE / Software & Services

At close

2026-06-03

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

30%

Probability

Target price

$185.00

+12.3% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$162.00

-1.7% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$132.00

-19.9% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-05

AI commentary

Recent news flow is mostly Gartner-authored survey and industry-thought-leadership content rather than new operating datapoints, so headline tone is mildly supportive but not thesis-changing. The stock's near-term setup is event-driven into the May 5, 2026 Q1 earnings call, and the packet does not provide post-print analyst revision data yet. Peer context is improved by adding Forrester as a closer public research/advisory comparator, but the overall comp set remains thin and mostly indirect. Because the evidence base is strong on primary sourcing but still light on fresh forward confirmation, this remains a cautious pre-earnings monitoring view rather than a high-conviction bullish call.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-05

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Evidence flagged

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-05eventQ1 2026 earnings call is the immediate thesis resetHigh impact

Gartner's investor-relations site lists its Q1 2026 earnings conference call for May 5, 2026 at 8:00 AM EDT, making the next print the clearest near-term test of contract value, NCVI, margin and demand commentary after management's prior acceleration outlook. [#IR-2026-05-05]

2026-12-31catalyst2026 guidance embeds modest growth but management is pointing to improving CV trajectoryHigh impact

In the February 3, 2026 earnings release furnished with Gartner's 8-K, management guided to at least $6.455 billion of 2026 revenue, at least $1.515 billion of EBITDA and said it expects contract value growth to accelerate through 2026, with strong visibility from ending 2025 contract value and conference bookings. That leaves room for upside if Q1 and first-half renewals confirm the inflection, but also limits near-term tolerance for misses. [#8-K-2026-02-03]

2026-12-31catalystRepurchase capacity can cushion EPS even in a slower topline yearMedium impact

Gartner disclosed on its January 29, 2026 8-K that the board added $500 million to the repurchase authorization, on top of roughly $750 million remaining at year-end 2025. Continued buybacks can support EPS accretion and shareholder returns, though they do not solve underlying demand softness if contract value growth fails to reaccelerate. [#8-K-2026-02-03]

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-05 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology