RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

IOT

SamsaraD
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Q2 revenue and adjusted EPS exceeded the consensus figures reported by Investing.com ($508.4 million versus $483.3 million; $0.20 versus $0.16). Large-customer additions and 21% non-GAAP operating margin support durable-growth and operating-leverage arguments.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Q3 revenue guidance implies roughly 24% year-over-year growth versus 30% reported in Q2; further deceleration could pressure the valuation. SEC-filed earnings release.
Momentum
67
Value
45
Sentiment
37
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $37.50 · Bull $48.00 · Bear $28.00Analysis 2026-09-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $51.83
Why
Momentum67 · Δ7d +10.9
Value45 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment37 · Δ7d -12.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Q3 revenue guidance implies roughly 24% year-over-year growth versus 30% reported in Q2; further deceleration could pressure the valuation. SEC-filed earnings release.
  • • September Form 4 records include open-market sales by the CFO and a director. Other listed dispositions were tax-withholding transactions; none establishes weaker operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-09] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-17].
  • • Q3 guidance implies slower revenue growth than Q2's 30%, while the September 22 MCP launch has no demonstrated incremental revenue yet.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-31

Samsara MCP launch

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
67
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.9
Δ21d
+13.0
Value
45
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
37
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.1
Δ21d
-14.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 67.5 / Value 45.2 / Sentiment 37.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$37.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$26.31B
Beta
1.62
Shares Out
585.61M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2825.2
P/S (TTM)
13.01
P/FCF (TTM)
101.83
Rev YoY
+30.5%
EPS YoY
-294.1%
Gross Margin
+76.2%
Op Margin
-0.7%
Net Debt
-$767.08M
Current Ratio
1.36
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data