B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
+113.4% vs current
ICU
SeaStar MedicalBNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-03
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
+37.2% vs current
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.80
-45.1% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-04-19
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-26.5
Negative
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-26.5
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+78.4
Score
AI commentary
Sentiment is cautiously constructive on product traction but still dominated by balance-sheet risk. The deterministic prior is mildly positive, yet evidence quality and catalyst density are only moderate-to-low, so this looks more like a monitoring setup than a high-conviction long. Primary filings support a real commercial foothold, but they also make the financing gap explicit [#10-K-2026-03-25] [#8-K-2026-03-25].
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-19
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-31catalystFinancing and runway overhang remains the dominant near-term swing factorHigh impact
The 2025 10-K says SeaStar had $12.0 million of cash as of December 31, 2025 and that existing cash is expected to be insufficient to fund operations for twelve months from the filing date, with management concluding there is substantial doubt about continuing as a going concern. Any equity raise, debt financing, or strategic capital update is therefore likely to drive the stock more than routine operating updates in the near term [#10-K-2026-03-25].
2026-12-31event2026 QUELIMMUNE hospital activation and utilization progressionHigh impact
SeaStar disclosed that QUELIMMUNE is its only FDA-approved product for the pediatric AKI/sepsis setting, that first shipment began in July 2024, and that it had 10 active commercial hospital customers as of December 31, 2025 that had completed SAVE registry process requirements and purchased therapy. Incremental 2026 customer activations and procedure utilization are the clearest commercial proof-points, but hospital IRB and registry steps can slow adoption [#10-K-2026-03-25].
2027-12-31catalystAdult AKI pivotal study enrollment and regulatory path for SCDHigh impact
The 10-K states SeaStar is actively enrolling the 339-patient NEUTRALIZE-AKI pivotal trial in adults, had enrolled 181 patients as of March 21, 2026, and expects enrollment to last up to 48 months. Continued enrollment progress can support the longer-term PMA thesis, but the timeline is extended and funding, enrollment pace, and trial execution remain meaningful risks [#10-K-2026-03-25].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-04-19 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology