B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ICLR
ICONFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best near-term bull read is that the core franchise may be intact despite the accounting failure: management said there was no customer, operational, or cash-flow impact, the quantified overstatement was below the prior 2% ceiling, and the stock's April 29 relief move suggests investors were positioned for worse.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Form 20-F has not yet been filed; management only guided to completion in the coming weeks.
Momentum
58
Value
66
Sentiment
18
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $108.00 · Bull $125.00 · Bear $85.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $187.60
Why
Momentum58 · Δ7d -32.4
Value66 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment18 · Δ7d +2.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Form 20-F has not yet been filed; management only guided to completion in the coming weeks.
- • Management said near-term performance remains affected by market dynamics, while fuller commentary on backlog policy changes, business wins, and cancellation trends is still pending.
- • The bear case is that completion of the investigation does not end the problem set: prior years and the first nine months of 2025 still need restatement, material weaknesses will be disclosed with remediation plans, prior 2025 guidance was withdrawn on February 12, 2026, and management still has not delivered final 2025 financials or backlog/cancellation detail.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-29
Relief rally after investigation completion may fade without clean filing follow-through
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
58
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-32.4
Δ21d
-21.8
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
18
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.1
Δ21d
+7.6
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 57.9 / Value 66.3 / Sentiment 17.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$108.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$85.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$13.07B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
77.15M
P/E (TTM)
26.7
P/S (TTM)
1.86
P/FCF (TTM)
15.65
Rev YoY
+1.2%
EPS YoY
-63.3%
Gross Margin
+19.4%
Op Margin
+10.1%
Net Debt
$2.91B
Current Ratio
0.95
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data