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ICLR

ICONA
Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2's $23.4 billion backlog, 1.2 direct-fee book-to-bill and reaffirmed 2026 outlook leave room for improvement if awards convert and margins recover. This is a conditional case, not evidence of a Q3 beat.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
Net debt was $2.5 billion at June 30, 2026; the August notes pricing was intended to refinance existing borrowings, not evidence of incremental operating demand. [#PR-2026-07-29] ICON Q2 results [#IR-2026-08-06] ICON notes announcement
Momentum
86
Value
65
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $190.00 · Bull $215.00 · Bear $145.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $190.31
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d +1.7
Value65 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +40.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Net debt was $2.5 billion at June 30, 2026; the August notes pricing was intended to refinance existing borrowings, not evidence of incremental operating demand. [#PR-2026-07-29] ICON Q2 results [#IR-2026-08-06] ICON notes announcement
  • • Prior revenue overstatements and identified material internal-control weaknesses create continuing remediation and reporting-confidence risk. [#PR-2026-05-27] ICON investigation update
  • • Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell 21.7% year over year, management flagged second-half pass-through variability, and accounting-control remediation remains a credibility risk.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27

Q3 results are still ahead, not a completed T+3 earnings event

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
86
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.7
Δ21d
+12.8
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+40.7
Δ21d
+33.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 86.4 / Value 64.5 / Sentiment 55.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$215.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$190.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$14.18B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
77.15M
P/E (TTM)
26.7
P/S (TTM)
1.86
P/FCF (TTM)
15.65
Rev YoY
+1.2%
EPS YoY
-63.3%
Gross Margin
+19.4%
Op Margin
+10.1%
Net Debt
$2.91B
Current Ratio
0.95
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data