B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
+36.4% vs current
ICFI
ICF InternationalCNasdaq / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
+14.9% vs current
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
-13.9% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-09
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-0.2
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+60.6
Score
AI commentary
This T+3 follow-up improves the primary evidence set because the earnings release and 10-Q are now in hand, but the setup still looks like a cautious monitoring view rather than a clean turn. The immediate market reaction was negative: ICFI closed at $69.61 on May 8, 2026 versus the packet anchor of $74.50 from May 7, 2026, which fits the revenue/EPS miss even with guidance reaffirmed. Post-print analyst reaction appears thin so far; one May 8 secondary headline cited a reiterated Buy and $115 target, but the limited revision set keeps confidence restrained rather than bullish.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-09
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-06-30catalystQ2 must show recovery of the delayed Q1 project work without breaking full-year guidanceHigh impact
Management said first-quarter revenue was about $12 million below expectations because roughly $8 million of commercial energy work and $4 million of international government work shifted in timing, with half expected back in Q2 and the rest in the second half; that makes the next quarter the clearest near-term proof point for the reaffirmed 2026 growth plan [#8-K-2026-05-07].
2026-09-30catalystAwards, backlog, and pipeline need to convert into cleaner revenue growthHigh impact
The quarter included $450 million of contract awards, a 1.03 quarterly book-to-bill, 1.21 trailing-twelve-month book-to-bill, $3.4 billion of backlog, and an $8.5 billion pipeline, but the stock likely needs evidence that these wins convert into funded, on-time revenue with resilient margins rather than staying as visibility markers only [#8-K-2026-05-07].
2026-12-31eventReaffirmed 2026 outlook now hinges on federal stabilization and nonfederal growth conversionHigh impact
ICF reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $1.89 billion to $1.96 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance of $6.95 to $7.25 while pointing to sequential improvement in federal revenue, double-digit growth from nonfederal government clients, and a return to year-over-year federal growth in Q4; investors need execution to validate that bridge after the Q1 miss [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology