B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ICFI
ICF InternationalCNasdaq / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-09
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-0.2
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+51.8
Score
AI commentary
This T+3 follow-up improves the primary evidence set because the earnings release and 10-Q are now in hand, but the setup still looks like a cautious monitoring view rather than a clean turn. The immediate market reaction was negative: ICFI closed at $69.61 on May 8, 2026 versus the packet anchor of $74.50 from May 7, 2026, which fits the revenue/EPS miss even with guidance reaffirmed. Post-print analyst reaction appears thin so far; one May 8 secondary headline cited a reiterated Buy and $115 target, but the limited revision set keeps confidence restrained rather than bullish.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-09
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-06-30catalystQ2 must show recovery of the delayed Q1 project work without breaking full-year guidanceHigh impact
Management said first-quarter revenue was about $12 million below expectations because roughly $8 million of commercial energy work and $4 million of international government work shifted in timing, with half expected back in Q2 and the rest in the second half; that makes the next quarter the clearest near-term proof point for the reaffirmed 2026 growth plan [#8-K-2026-05-07].
2026-09-30catalystAwards, backlog, and pipeline need to convert into cleaner revenue growthHigh impact
The quarter included $450 million of contract awards, a 1.03 quarterly book-to-bill, 1.21 trailing-twelve-month book-to-bill, $3.4 billion of backlog, and an $8.5 billion pipeline, but the stock likely needs evidence that these wins convert into funded, on-time revenue with resilient margins rather than staying as visibility markers only [#8-K-2026-05-07].
2026-12-31eventReaffirmed 2026 outlook now hinges on federal stabilization and nonfederal growth conversionHigh impact
ICF reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $1.89 billion to $1.96 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance of $6.95 to $7.25 while pointing to sequential improvement in federal revenue, double-digit growth from nonfederal government clients, and a return to year-over-year federal growth in Q4; investors need execution to validate that bridge after the Q1 miss [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology