B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$188.00
+19.8% vs current
HWKN
HawkinsDNasdaq / Materials
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$170.00
+8.3% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
-7.6% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-16
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+20.1
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+20.1
Positive
Pulse
+16.6
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+56.1
Score
AI commentary
Near-term tone is mixed-to-slightly positive on fundamentals but not emphatic. The company delivered record sales and cash flow on May 13, 2026, yet EPS was lower and trusted secondary services point to a modest consensus EPS miss. By May 16, 2026, the stock was $158.98, suggesting no strong post-print upside breakout had been established, and clear analyst revision follow-through remained limited. With no usable social-coverage packet and only light headline volume, this remains a cautious post-earnings monitoring setup rather than a confirmed sentiment inflection.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-16
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-13eventPost-earnings reset hinges on Water Treatment growth offsetting acquisition EPS dragMedium impact
Fiscal Q4/FY2026 showed record Q4 sales, FY sales above $1.08 billion, and 22% annual Water Treatment growth, but Q4 EPS fell to $0.74 because acquisition-related amortization, interest, and earnout accretion rose; management still said fiscal 2027 should grow revenue, operating income, and EPS [#8-K-2026-05-13].
2026-05-20catalystT+3 earnings digestion remains mixed because consensus revision evidence is thinMedium impact
Trusted secondary coverage indicates a modest Q4 EPS miss versus consensus while revenue appears to have outperformed, but by May 16, 2026 clear post-print analyst target or rating revisions were still sparse, keeping the setup in monitoring mode rather than confirming a stronger re-rating.
2027-05-16catalystFiscal 2027 deleveraging and WaterSurplus integration are the main upside pathHigh impact
Management said strong operating cash flow should support debt paydown toward roughly 1x adjusted EBITDA leverage by fiscal 2027 year-end while continuing growth investments, with Water Treatment now 50% of revenue and 56% of operating income after six fiscal 2026 acquisitions [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-16 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology