B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$44.14
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HWBK
Hawthorn BancsharesBNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q1 showed strong year-over-year earnings growth, better NIM, lower deposit costs, improved efficiency, and well-capitalized status. The deterministic prior is positive, with expected returns of 6.55% over 20 days and 10.49% over 60 days.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Low coverage and limited peer data reduce confidence in valuation and forward estimates.
Momentum
62
Value
60
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $40.90 · Bull $44.14 · Bear $34.55Analysis 2026-07-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum62 · Δ7d -
Value60 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Low coverage and limited peer data reduce confidence in valuation and forward estimates.
- • Margin gains may weaken if asset yields fall faster than deposit and borrowing costs.
- • Loans and deposits contracted sequentially, non-performing assets to loans rose to 0.47% from 0.21% year over year, and the July earnings trigger lacks confirmed Q2 results.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-15
Muted post-print market reaction
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
62
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 62.0 / Value 60.3 / Sentiment 57.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$40.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$271.34M
Beta
0.52
Shares Out
6.9M
P/E (TTM)
10.6
P/S (TTM)
2.99
P/FCF (TTM)
42.65
Rev YoY
+8.3%
EPS YoY
+20.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+27.1%
Net Debt
$138.83M
Current Ratio
0.10
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data