HWBK

Hawthorn BancsharesB

Nasdaq / Banks

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$37.00

+1.9% vs current

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$34.00

-6.3% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$30.00

-17.4% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-04-29

AI commentary

This remains a cautious monitoring memo, not a high-conviction post-earnings call. The packet’s news is stale and thin, and the scheduled T+3 follow-up appears to have arrived before a verifiable Q1 2026 company earnings source was available. On 2026-04-29, HWBK traded at about $33.17 versus the 2026-04-28 anchor close of $34.57, a roughly 4.1% decline, but without a confirmed company filing or trusted coverage tying that move to results, the reaction should be treated as unconfirmed rather than definitive sentiment evidence.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-29

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-04-29eventQ1 2026 earnings confirmation is the key missing near-term inputMedium impact

This follow-up run was scheduled for earnings dated 2026-04-28, but as of 2026-04-29 no late-April 2026 earnings 8-K or IR release was identified in the checked SEC company filings, leaving investors without primary-source confirmation on whether the 2025 exit trends in margin, deposits and credit held into Q1; the 2025 baseline being tested was improved profitability and capital strength in the latest annual report [#10-K-2026-03-05].

2026-07-01catalystCapital return support remains visible after dividend step-upMedium impact

Management entered 2026 with a higher quarterly dividend after the board approved a $0.21 per share payout, up 5% from the prior quarterly dividend, which helps support the income case for a thinly covered community bank [#8-K-2026-01-28].

2026-12-31catalystRepurchase capacity and capital strength could cushion downside if operations stay stableMedium impact

Hawthorn ended 2025 well capitalized, repurchased 100,358 shares during 2025, and still had $8.4 million available under its repurchase plan, creating a tangible capital-allocation backstop if management keeps earnings and credit quality intact [#10-K-2026-03-05].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-04-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology