B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$44.14
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HWBK
Hawthorn BancsharesBNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q1 showed strong year-over-year earnings growth, better NIM, lower deposit costs, improved efficiency, and well-capitalized status. The deterministic prior is positive, with expected returns of 6.55% over 20 days and 10.49% over 60 days.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Low coverage and limited peer data reduce confidence in valuation and forward estimates.
Momentum
62
Value
61
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $40.90 · Bull $44.14 · Bear $34.55Analysis 2026-07-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum62 · Δ7d -
Value61 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment64 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Low coverage and limited peer data reduce confidence in valuation and forward estimates.
- • Margin gains may weaken if asset yields fall faster than deposit and borrowing costs.
- • Loans and deposits contracted sequentially, non-performing assets to loans rose to 0.47% from 0.21% year over year, and the July earnings trigger lacks confirmed Q2 results.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-15
Muted post-print market reaction
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
62
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
64
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 62.0 / Value 60.8 / Sentiment 63.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$40.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$274.03M
Beta
0.52
Shares Out
6.9M
P/E (TTM)
10.6
P/S (TTM)
2.99
P/FCF (TTM)
42.65
Rev YoY
+8.3%
EPS YoY
+20.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+27.1%
Net Debt
$138.83M
Current Ratio
0.10
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data