B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HOV
Hovnanian EnterprisesCNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
A $881.9 million consolidated domestic backlog and Q4 margin guidance leave room for recovery if deliveries convert and newer communities improve economics [#SEC-8K-2026-08-20].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Analyst target coverage, current revisions, and a verified post-release price reaction are unavailable.
Momentum
9
Value
66
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $100.00 · Bull $125.00 · Bear $72.00Analysis 2026-10-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $120.00
Why
Momentum9 · Δ7d -12.4
Value66 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -4.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst target coverage, current revisions, and a verified post-release price reaction are unavailable.
- • Fiscal Q3 adjusted homebuilding gross margin of 14.6% remained below the prior-year 17.3%; Q4's guided recovery may not materialize [#SEC-8K-2026-08-20].
- • Q3 revenue declined to $705.7 million from $800.6 million a year earlier, contracts fell, and Hovnanian posted a $0.70 diluted loss per share.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-31
Backlog conversion versus slowing contracts
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
9
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-12.4
Δ21d
-25.4
Value
66
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.2
Δ21d
-13.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 9.3 / Value 65.5 / Sentiment 51.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$605.18M
Beta
2.31
Shares Out
5.96M
P/E (TTM)
13.3
P/S (TTM)
0.20
P/FCF (TTM)
3.79
Rev YoY
-11.9%
EPS YoY
-135.0%
Gross Margin
+13.5%
Op Margin
+3.9%
Net Debt
$638.66M
Current Ratio
2.34
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data