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HOG

Harley-DavidsonD
NYSE / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The constructive post-earnings read is that retail demand and dealer inventory improved meaningfully, tariff exposure narrowed versus the prior estimate, guidance was reaffirmed, and the new strategy gives investors a clearer path to cost reduction and eventual margin recovery.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Cash generation was weak in Q1, with net cash use of $228 million from operating activities, reducing room for error if demand or margins soften further [#8-K-2026-05-05].
Momentum
84
Value
55
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $23.00 · Bull $27.50 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $28.30
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d -2.0
Value55 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment45 · Δ7d +4.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cash generation was weak in Q1, with net cash use of $228 million from operating activities, reducing room for error if demand or margins soften further [#8-K-2026-05-05].
  • • Execution risk around Back to the Bricks is explicit in the updated risk factors; the company said there is no assurance it can successfully execute the newly announced plan [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
  • • The bearish read is that profit compression remains severe: Q1 revenue fell 12%, operating income fell 85%, HDFS revenue dropped 54% after the receivables sale, cash from operations was negative, and near-term execution now depends on a back-half recovery that has not yet been proven.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Q2 earnings must convert retail momentum into margin stabilization

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
84
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.0
Δ21d
+28.8
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-3.6
Sentiment
45
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.7
Δ21d
+2.3
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 83.9 / Value 55.0 / Sentiment 44.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.81B
Beta
1.40
Shares Out
104.07M
P/E (TTM)
5.0
P/S (TTM)
0.52
P/FCF (TTM)
7.98
Rev YoY
-5.9%
EPS YoY
-16.5%
Gross Margin
+26.3%
Op Margin
+6.2%
Net Debt
-$38.05M
Current Ratio
1.90
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data