RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

HNRG

Hallador EnergyC
Nasdaq / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Hallador combines long-dated contracted capacity revenue with a potentially lower-cost 460 MW Turtle Creek project. Successful September interconnection and final-investment-decision progress, followed by improved Merom availability, could support a rerating from the $15.77 anchor price.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.
What can break
Capacity-agreement regulatory approvals and additional forward sales remain timing-sensitive.
Momentum
65
Value
44
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.50 · Bull $26.00 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-08-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.75
Why
Momentum65 · Δ7d +10.4
Value44 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +1.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Capacity-agreement regulatory approvals and additional forward sales remain timing-sensitive.
  • • Capital requirements may create balance-sheet pressure or equity dilution.
  • • The Q2 loss and negative adjusted EBITDA demonstrate sensitivity to outages, reliability issues, and purchased-power costs.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-31

Q2 earnings reset leaves near-term execution overhang

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
65
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+10.4
Δ21d
+55.6
Value
44
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-16.0
Sentiment
61
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
-4.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 65.0 / Value 44.1 / Sentiment 61.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$763.25M
Beta
0.23
Shares Out
47.14M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
16.6
P/S (TTM)
1.84
P/FCF (TTM)
15.76
Rev YoY
+2.0%
EPS YoY
-268.7%
Gross Margin
+7.6%
Op Margin
+1.7%
Net Debt
$23.7M
Current Ratio
0.72
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data