B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
-0.5% vs current
HLIT
HarmonicANasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$12.80
-17.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
-32.6% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-14
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+6.6
Positive
Company
+17.2
Positive
Macro
+7.9
Positive
Pulse
-35.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+32.2
Score
AI commentary
Near-term tone improved after earnings, but it is not a clean breakout sentiment setup. StockAnalysis snippets showed HLIT closed at $12.83 on May 11, 2026, traded at $14.89 pre-market on May 12, and then closed at $13.35 on May 13, indicating a positive initial reaction that partially faded. News flow was mostly earnings-summary coverage, post-print analyst revision evidence was limited, and the supplied peer set lacks enough direct operating comparators, so this remains a cautious post-earnings monitoring view.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-14
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
memo remains a monitoring view with limited forward evidence and should not be standard-conviction
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-11eventQ1 broadband beat and raised FY2026 outlook reset the near-term narrativeHigh impact
Harmonic reported Q1 2026 continuing-operations broadband revenue of $121.7M, up 43% YoY, backlog and deferred revenue of $582.1M, up 87%, and raised FY2026 broadband revenue outlook to $475M-$495M; the main question is whether post-print buyers continue to underwrite backlog conversion rather than treat the beat as one-quarter pull-forward. [#8-K-2026-05-11] [#10-Q-2026-05-13]
2026-06-08eventPending Video divestiture could complete in Q2 and leave a cleaner broadband pure-playMedium impact
Management said the Video business sale is progressing as planned, the APA was executed on March 20, 2026, and the transaction is expected to close in Q2 2026, with a June 8, 2026 outside date that can auto-extend to September 8, 2026 if conditions remain unsatisfied; closing would simplify the story but any delay would keep stranded-cost and execution questions alive. [#8-K-2026-05-11] [#10-Q-2026-05-13]
2026-12-31catalystBacklog conversion, customer diversification and DOCSIS 4.0/fiber wins need to sustain through 2026High impact
Primary materials point to 150 cOS deployments, Rest-of-Market bookings above 50% of Q1 bookings, additional DOCSIS 4.0 wins and fiber traction, while the 10-Q says 60% of remaining performance obligations should convert within 12 months; sustained execution would support a higher multiple, but any slowdown would quickly challenge the raised guide. [#8-K-2026-05-11] [#10-Q-2026-05-13]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-14 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology