B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
+32.6% vs current
HE
Hawaiian Electric IndustriesDNYSE / Utilities
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
+6.9% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
-15.3% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-09
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-13.7
Negative
Company
+35.0
Positive
Macro
-13.8
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+58.0
Score
AI commentary
Post-earnings tone is mixed but less fragile than before. Primary-source evidence improved meaningfully on May 8, 2026, yet the early read-through still looks like a monitoring setup rather than a clean rerating: one secondary source indicated only a muted after-hours move, and T+1 analyst revision data remains thin. The main change versus the prior baseline is that settlement execution risk moved down, while financing and cost-pressure risk remain firmly in place.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-09
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-08eventQ1 filing confirms settlement milestone, first payment, and better credit footingMedium impact
HEI's May 8 earnings release said the global wildfire settlement was finalized, the first of four $479 million annual payments was made in April, Moody's upgraded HEI and Hawaiian Electric to Ba2 and Ba1, and enterprise-wide liquidity was about $1.5 billion at quarter-end. This is the clearest near-term de-risking evidence since the prior baseline, even if it does not remove the remaining funding need. [#8-K-2026-05-08]
2026-06-30catalystHigher 2026 utility O&M resets near-term earnings expectationsMedium impact
Management said 2026 utility O&M excluding pension should significantly outpace inflation ahead of 2027 rate rebasing, driven by higher insurance, storm response, vegetation management, maintenance, cyber, and labor costs, with the maximum fuel-cost risk-sharing penalty also expected. That limits how much the Q1 settlement progress can translate into near-term EPS upside. [#8-K-2026-05-08]
2027-04-01catalystRemaining wildfire-settlement financing is still the main valuation gateHigh impact
The Q1 10-Q says HEI raised enough cash for the first installment and paid it on April 10, 2026, but is still working on a financing plan for the remaining installments due in April 2027, 2028 and 2029, with no assurance the plan will succeed. The filing still flags possible dilution, asset sales, or other strategic alternatives if capital cannot be raised on reasonable terms. [#10-Q-2026-05-08] [#10-K-2026-02-27]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology