B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HAYW
HaywardANYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print showed solid sales, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS growth, while management reaffirmed full-year guidance. Net leverage declined to 1.5x, refinancing extended maturities and the company continued share repurchases [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.8.
What can break
Cyclical residential pool demand and dependence on distributors, builders, retailers and servicers.
Momentum
21
Value
66
Sentiment
82
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.55 · Bull $17.90 · Bear $12.00Analysis 2026-08-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.92
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d -11.2
Value66 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment82 · Δ7d +8.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cyclical residential pool demand and dependence on distributors, builders, retailers and servicers.
- • Europe & Rest of World volume weakness and geopolitical exposure.
- • Tariffs and inflation pressured gross margin, E&RW sales fell 8% on lower volume linked partly to Middle East geopolitical conflicts, and six-month operating cash flow declined year over year.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-29
Q2 FY2026 results and reaffirmed 2026 guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
21
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.2
Δ21d
-14.0
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+6.2
Sentiment
82
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.8
Δ21d
-1.8
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 20.7 / Value 65.8 / Sentiment 81.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$15.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.13B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
212.12M
P/E (TTM)
25.5
P/S (TTM)
3.13
P/FCF (TTM)
17.99
Rev YoY
+6.3%
EPS YoY
+2.3%
Gross Margin
+44.1%
Op Margin
+21.3%
Net Debt
$619.1M
Current Ratio
3.33
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data