B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HAYW
HaywardANYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$15.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.6
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+84.7
Score
AI commentary
Company-source evidence is constructive on Q2 growth, maintained guidance, refinancing and deleveraging. News tone is moderately positive, but social coverage, options data, short-interest data and employee sentiment are unavailable; missing data is not treated as positive evidence. The verified post-print price reaction and analyst revision signal are also unavailable, so the thesis remains monitoring-oriented.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-29
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-29eventQ2 FY2026 results and reaffirmed 2026 guidanceMedium impact
Hayward reported Q2 net sales of $318.4 million, up 6% year over year; adjusted EBITDA rose 5% to $92.7 million and adjusted diluted EPS rose 8% to $0.26. Management reaffirmed 2026 sales growth of approximately 5% and adjusted EPS growth of approximately 9%-13% [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] [#8-K-2026-07-29].
2026-12-31catalystMargin recovery versus tariff and inflation pressureMedium impact
Positive pricing offset inflation and tariffs, but Q2 gross margin declined 50 basis points to 48.7% and adjusted EBITDA margin declined 40 basis points. Further price realization and cost absorption are the near-term execution test [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
2027-12-31catalystInstalled-base aftermarket and SmartPad adoptionHigh impact
Management cited resilient installed-base aftermarket demand, balanced channel inventory, share-gain initiatives and continued SmartPad adoption; aftermarket represented approximately 85% of North America residential pool net sales [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology