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HAPN

HappenC
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Second-quarter originations rose 29% year over year to $3.1 billion, deposits rose 18% to $10.8 billion, and pre-tax income reached $75.7 million [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]. Continued loan demand and marketplace distribution could sustain returns.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
A second-quarter provision benefit partly reflected a fair-value accounting election, complicating comparisons with prior-period earnings [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27].
Momentum
14
Value
58
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $15.50 · Bull $20.00 · Bear $10.00Analysis 2026-10-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $24.50
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d +1.4
Value58 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +1.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bearish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A second-quarter provision benefit partly reflected a fair-value accounting election, complicating comparisons with prior-period earnings [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27].
  • • Consumer-credit deterioration, weaker loan-investor purchases, or higher deposit funding costs could pressure earnings and liquidity; the structured-loan programs depend on continued investor participation (company release).
  • • Second-quarter EPS of $0.50 benefited from a $10.9 million provision benefit versus a $39.7 million expense a year earlier; the company partly attributed the change to its fair-value accounting election for new originations [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27].

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · AMC

October 28 third-quarter results

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
14
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
+3.5
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+1.6
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
-37.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 13.5 / Value 57.8 / Sentiment 59.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.63B
Beta
2.09
Shares Out
115.41M
P/E (TTM)
22.8
P/S (TTM)
2.46
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.56
Rev YoY
+32.0%
EPS YoY
+50.2%
Gross Margin
+75.4%
Op Margin
+14.9%
Net Debt
-$854.36M
Current Ratio
9.70
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data