GTN

Gray MediaC

NYSE / Media & Entertainment

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$6.50

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$4.40

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$2.80

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-16

AI commentary

Overall tone should stay cautious and monitoring-oriented. The evidence base is real and primary-source-backed, but forward visibility is still dominated by filings rather than broad analyst confirmation. Q1 revenue landed at the high end of company guidance, yet trusted market coverage also described a negative stock reaction after an EPS miss, which is consistent with the market still focusing on leverage, cash conversion, and retransmission pressure rather than on cyclical political upside alone. Social-context evidence was not available in the packet.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-16

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-08-01catalystRetransmission pressure may partially normalize after the May 1 dispute resolutionHigh impact

Q1 retransmission consent revenue fell to $339 million from $379 million as subscriber losses, one station’s move to independent status, and a satellite distribution dispute weighed on results; Gray said the dispute was resolved on May 1, 2026, so the next few months are the first real check on whether that drag eases, though structural pay-TV erosion still limits upside [#10-Q-2026-05-07].

2026-11-03eventThe 2026 political cycle remains the clearest dated earnings leverHigh impact

Political advertising rose by $17 million year over year in Q1 because 2026 is the election-cycle ‘on-year,’ and management said the station footprint covers many competitive races; that supports a stronger second-half revenue setup, but it is cyclical rather than a clean structural rerating driver [#10-Q-2026-05-07] [#10-K-2026-02-26].

2026-12-31catalystRecent station acquisitions add scale, but integration and deleveraging must prove outHigh impact

Gray closed the Allen 3 purchase for $56 million in March, the Allen 7 purchase for $115 million on May 1, and disclosed a further Block acquisition funded with cash on hand shortly after quarter-end. Added market scale can help retransmission and local ad reach, but with total net leverage still about 5.94x and Q1 operating cash flow only $1 million, investors likely need evidence that acquired stations support deleveraging rather than extend balance-sheet strain [#8-K-2026-05-07] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-16 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology