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GTES

Gates IndustrialA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 sales reached $941.6 million across the two segments, and management cited improving global orders while raising full-year sales, EBITDA and EPS guidance. Continued delivery could support upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
What can break
Director Zhang Peifang reported 17,000 shares of open-market sales during August 4–6; the sales are not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-05] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-07]
Momentum
72
Value
65
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $26.00 · Bull $31.00 · Bear $20.00Analysis 2026-10-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-30 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.25
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d +14.9
Value65 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +5.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Director Zhang Peifang reported 17,000 shares of open-market sales during August 4–6; the sales are not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-05] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-07]
  • • Fluid Power Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin declined 120 basis points year over year; persistent pressure could undermine the raised outlook. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-31]
  • • The Q2 improvement may already be reflected in expectations, while Fluid Power margin contraction raises execution risk.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-30 · BMO

October 30 Q3 results test raised guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
72
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.9
Δ21d
-0.8
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.8
Δ21d
-2.6
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 71.6 / Value 65.2 / Sentiment 58.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$6.65B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
253.15M
P/E (TTM)
24.7
P/S (TTM)
1.70
P/FCF (TTM)
20.33
Rev YoY
+6.6%
EPS YoY
+206.3%
Gross Margin
+40.6%
Op Margin
+15.1%
Net Debt
$1.57B
Current Ratio
3.24
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data