RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

GTES

Gates IndustrialB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The Q2 beat, record sales and EPS, improving industrial demand, book-to-bill above one, and raised 2026 guidance support continued earnings momentum. The median analyst target in the packet is $33.08 versus the $24.80 anchor price, though the target count is unavailable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.4.
What can break
Fluid Power margin compression could offset stronger Power Transmission performance. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-31]
Momentum
52
Value
66
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.00 · Bull $32.50 · Bear $21.50Analysis 2026-09-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.08
Why
Momentum52 · Δ7d -12.3
Value66 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment68 · Δ7d -13.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Fluid Power margin compression could offset stronger Power Transmission performance. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-31]
  • • Post-earnings analyst revisions, detailed consensus changes, and clean attribution of the market reaction are unavailable.
  • • The Fluid Power segment's adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 21.7% from 22.9%, and six-month margin declined 130 basis points.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-31

Q2 beat and raised 2026 guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
52
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.3
Δ21d
-7.1
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.7
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.4
Δ21d
-0.3
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 51.5 / Value 65.6 / Sentiment 68.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$21.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.12B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
253.15M
P/E (TTM)
24.7
P/S (TTM)
1.70
P/FCF (TTM)
20.33
Rev YoY
+6.6%
EPS YoY
+206.3%
Gross Margin
+40.6%
Op Margin
+15.1%
Net Debt
$1.57B
Current Ratio
3.24
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data