B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GPRE
Green PlainsBNasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+38.1
Positive
Company
+2.0
Mixed
Macro
+38.3
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
+22.0
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+75.8
Score
AI commentary
The SEC 8-K earnings release confirms the Q2 financial results and management commentary. [#SEC-SEC-8K-2026-08-06] The company tone is positive, but no reliable post-print market reaction or further analyst revision data was found in the checked sources. The UBS target increase predates the August 6 release, so the evidence supports cautious monitoring rather than an aggressive upgrade.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-06eventQ2 earnings reset: profit and EBITDA inflectionHigh impact
Q2 net income was $67.1 million, EPS was $0.83, and adjusted EBITDA was $93.3 million versus $16.4 million a year earlier. Management cited stronger ethanol economics, commercial execution, and the low-carbon platform. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
2026-11-06catalystLower utilization and ethanol volume remain the near-term offsetHigh impact
Q2 utilization was 88%, ethanol gallons sold were 160.7 million versus 193.6 million year over year, and revenue fell to $446.2 million from $552.8 million, partly due to the Obion plant disposition. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
2027-08-08catalyst45Z credit monetization and carbon platformHigh impact
Q2 adjusted EBITDA included $58.7 million from 45Z production tax credit value, net of discounts and other costs. Q1 management raised 2026 credit-related EBITDA guidance to $200-$225 million. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06] [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology