B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
+30.1% vs current
GPRE
Green PlainsDNasdaq / Energy
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
+5.3% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
-19.5% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-09
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+27.0
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+27.0
Positive
Pulse
+35.0
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+55.5
Score
AI commentary
News flow into the May 7, 2026 earnings release was constructive and the immediate reaction was positive; checked market coverage described a modest premarket rise after the print, and by May 9, 2026 the stock was $18.19 versus the May 7 anchor close of $16.46. That said, clearly attributable analyst target or rating revisions were not confirmed in the checked sources, so this still looks more like an earnings-and-45Z repricing than a fully validated revision cycle.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-09
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-01event45Z credit realization and accounting-policy credibility checkHigh impact
The quarter benefited from $55.2 million of 45Z production tax credit value net of discounts and other costs, while the company also changed presentation to recognize Section 45Z credits under the ASU 2025-10 income model; the next print must confirm cash realization, discounting, and repeatability rather than a one-quarter accounting-aided step-up. [#8-K-2026-05-07]
2026-08-01catalystQ1 earnings inflection and higher 45Z outlookHigh impact
On May 7, 2026, Green Plains reported Q1 net income of $32.9 million, EPS of $0.42, EBITDA of $71.5 million, 97% plant utilization, and raised expected 2026 EBITDA tied to production tax credits to $200-$225 million; management also said the first full quarter with all three Nebraska carbon facilities online contributed significantly. [#8-K-2026-05-07]
2026-12-31catalystLow-carbon ethanol and carbon-intensity executionHigh impact
Green Plains describes itself as a renewable fuels and agricultural technology company focused on low-cost, low-carbon-intensity ethanol, co-products, and carbon reduction, which can support a longer re-rating if margins and low-carbon market access stay favorable; this remains execution- and policy-dependent. [#10-K-2026-02-10]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology