B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
GNW
Genworth FinancialCNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Execution on reinsurance and capital initiatives materially reduces reserve uncertainty and frees capital for buybacks/dividends, allowing multiple expansion toward the bull target.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.
What can break
Failure to execute reinsurance/capital plans
Momentum
63
Value
50
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.00 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $7.00Analysis 2026-02-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.00
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d +5.6
Value50 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -1.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Failure to execute reinsurance/capital plans
- • Regulatory or rating-agency actions
- • Reserve deterioration, slower-than-expected reinsurance or failed capital actions lead to continued discounting and pressure toward the bear target.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-25
Quarterly results / capital update
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
63
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.6
Δ21d
+12.4
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-7.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 63.3 / Value 49.8 / Sentiment 58.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.81B
Beta
1.02
Shares Out
377.85M
P/E (TTM)
15.4
P/S (TTM)
0.51
P/FCF (TTM)
23.47
Rev YoY
+2.3%
EPS YoY
-0.4%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+7.2%
Net Debt
-$478M
Current Ratio
3.31
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data