GGB

Gerdau n-vtg PfdB

NYSE / Materials

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$4.90

+0.2% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$4.45

-9.0% vs current

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$3.90

-20.2% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-04

AI commentary

Post-print tone improved modestly after the April 28, 2026 earnings release because primary-source results showed stronger EBITDA and North American momentum, while secondary coverage indicated the ADR initially traded up roughly 4% even as EPS appeared to miss consensus. Even so, this remains a monitoring-style setup: visible analyst revision breadth is limited, direct-peer confirmation is thin, and the deterministic prior still points to weak forward-return visibility.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-04

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-04-28catalyst1Q26 reset was driven by North America with a firmer 2Q26 operating setupMedium impact

Gerdau's 1Q26 earnings release reported adjusted EBITDA of R$3.0 billion, up 25% versus 4Q25, with North America accounting for 75% of consolidated EBITDA. Management also pointed to a roughly 90-day backlog, expected metal spread expansion, and 2Q26 margin growth in North America, which supports near-term stability but still needs follow-through before a rerating case strengthens [#IR-2026-04-28].

2026-06-09eventJune dividend payment and ongoing buyback activity offer limited near-term supportMedium impact

The 1Q26 release said Gerdau approved a dividend of R$0.18 per share payable on June 9, 2026, while the 2026 buyback program had reached 21% execution through April 10, 2026 with about R$211 million invested. That is supportive for carry and downside cushioning, but it is not by itself a major rerating driver [#IR-2026-04-28].

2026-07-31catalyst2026 Brazil and North America execution checkpoints will determine whether the rebound broadensHigh impact

Management flagged the start-up of the Miguel Burnier Mining Project in Brazil, Phase 1 of the Midlothian, Texas expansion, and monitoring of Section 232 changes plus the formal USMCA review scheduled for July 2026. These milestones matter because Brazil still faces heavy import pressure while the current earnings rebound is concentrated in North America [#IR-2026-04-28].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-04 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology