GEO
GEO GroupBNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
Current thesis
The bull case is that GEO is converting 2025 contract wins into 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth, while idle-bed activation, secure transportation, and buybacks keep amplifying the operating leverage visible in the May 6 beat-and-raise [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Momentum
What changed
Momentum remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.8.
What can break
Capital allocation and leverage remain important; buybacks help but could reduce flexibility if operating momentum weakens.
Momentum
93
Value
48
Sentiment
39
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.50 · Bull $33.00 · Bear $19.00
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-07-18
Fundamentals
As of 2026-07-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-07-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-07-18
Investment thesis
As of 2026-07-18
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.75
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d -3.8
Value48 · Δ7d +1.2
Sentiment39 · Δ7d +0.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Lead driver: Momentum · See technicals
Momentum
93
26% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.8
Δ21d
-4.7
Value
48
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+1.5
Sentiment
39
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+1.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 92.8 / Value 47.7 / Sentiment 39.3
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-07-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-07-17
Market Cap
$3.94B
Beta
0.73
Shares Out
133.62M
P/E (TTM)
9.8
P/S (TTM)
0.91
P/FCF (TTM)
87.66
Rev YoY
+16.6%
EPS YoY
+106.1%
Gross Margin
+20.6%
Op Margin
+9.2%
Net Debt
$1.65B
Current Ratio
1.75
As of 2026-07-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology