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GEO

GEO GroupC
NYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that GEO is converting 2025 contract wins into 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth, while idle-bed activation, secure transportation, and buybacks keep amplifying the operating leverage visible in the May 6 beat-and-raise [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.
What can break
Capital allocation and leverage remain important; buybacks help but could reduce flexibility if operating momentum weakens.
Momentum
37
Value
54
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.50 · Bull $33.00 · Bear $19.00Analysis 2026-06-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $39.00
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d -38.1
Value54 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +3.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Capital allocation and leverage remain important; buybacks help but could reduce flexibility if operating momentum weakens.
  • • Execution risk on secure transportation, skip tracing, and other new contract ramps remains a live concern.
  • • The bear case is that the rerating is already partly in the stock, and any slowdown in utilization, staffing, or facility-transition execution could leave the raised outlook looking front-loaded rather than durable.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

Q2 follow-through must validate the May 6 beat-and-raise

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
37
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-38.1
Δ21d
-52.9
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+2.7
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.2
Δ21d
+6.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 37.1 / Value 53.9 / Sentiment 54.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$27.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$3.63B
Beta
0.73
Shares Out
131.62M
P/E (TTM)
9.8
P/S (TTM)
0.91
P/FCF (TTM)
87.66
Rev YoY
+15.1%
EPS YoY
+73.6%
Gross Margin
+21.3%
Op Margin
+12.5%
Net Debt
$1.65B
Current Ratio
1.65
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data