B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GEO
GEO GroupDNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that GEO is converting 2025 contract wins into 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth, while idle-bed activation, secure transportation, and buybacks keep amplifying the operating leverage visible in the May 6 beat-and-raise [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.4.
What can break
Capital allocation and leverage remain important; buybacks help but could reduce flexibility if operating momentum weakens.
Momentum
80
Value
53
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.50 · Bull $33.00 · Bear $19.00Analysis 2026-06-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $37.75
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d +1.5
Value53 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -3.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capital allocation and leverage remain important; buybacks help but could reduce flexibility if operating momentum weakens.
- • Execution risk on secure transportation, skip tracing, and other new contract ramps remains a live concern.
- • The bear case is that the rerating is already partly in the stock, and any slowdown in utilization, staffing, or facility-transition execution could leave the raised outlook looking front-loaded rather than durable.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Q2 follow-through must validate the May 6 beat-and-raise
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
80
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.5
Δ21d
-2.9
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
+5.8
Sentiment
48
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.4
Δ21d
+1.6
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 79.7 / Value 52.8 / Sentiment 47.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$27.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.1B
Beta
0.73
Shares Out
131.62M
P/E (TTM)
9.8
P/S (TTM)
0.91
P/FCF (TTM)
87.66
Rev YoY
+15.1%
EPS YoY
+73.6%
Gross Margin
+21.3%
Op Margin
+12.5%
Net Debt
$1.65B
Current Ratio
1.65
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data