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Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-19Gemini Space (GEMI) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Motley Fool
Gemini Space (GEMI) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Image source: The Motley Fool. Friday, May 15, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET Co-Founder & President — Cameron Winklevoss Co-Founder & CEO — Tyler Winklevoss Chief Financial Officer — Danijela Stojanovic Head of Research — Ryan Todd Cameron Winklevoss: Good morning. Thank you all for joining us. Since announcing Gemini 2.0, we have made meaningful progress towards building Gemini into a markets company. We started as a Bitcoin company, became a crypto company, and are now building the super app for the markets economy. This quarter, we grew revenue 42% and transaction revenue held steady year-over-year, even as trading volume declined more than 50% due to softness in the broader crypto market. We recognize where our share price sits. The price of Bitcoin is down roughly 30% since our IPO, and we are tied to that cycle. However, we do not believe the Gemini of today is 1/6 of the Gemini that IPO’d. We have launched a predictions marketplace and are building a foundation for crypto, predictions, credit card rewards, and soon, stocks. Because we believe the stock is significantly undervalued, we made a strategic investment of $100 million into Gemini via Winklevoss Capital at $14/share, funded in Bitcoin. Tyler Winklevoss: This quarter, Gemini achieved product and regulatory milestones that set us up for success. In April, we received a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) license from the CFTC. This allows us to act as a clearinghouse for derivatives, event-based contracts, and down the road, futures and perpetual contracts. This follows our Designated Contract Market (DCM) license received in late 2025. Together, DCM plus DCO allow us to build an end-to-end marketplace in-house without third-party dependencies. This positions us for perpetual contracts, which we believe will be permitted in the U.S. soon. We also launched the first agentic trading tool on a regulated U.S. exchange, allowing AI agents like Claude and ChatGPT to connect to our API to place trades autonomously. We believe Gemini will one day have more machines as customers than humans. Danijela Stojanovic: Thank you. Revenue grew 42% year-over-year to $50.3 million, driven by the credit card, our OTC business, and our first full quarter from prediction markets. Services revenue and interest income now represents 49% of total revenue, up from 31% in Q1 of 2025. Total revenue was $50.3 million. Exchange...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-16Gemini Space Station Inc (GEMI) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth Amidst ...
GuruFocus.com
Gemini Space Station Inc (GEMI) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth Amidst ...
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Revenue: $50.3 million, up 42% year-over-year. Transaction Revenue: $24.1 million, stable year-over-year. Exchange Revenue: $17.2 million, down 27% year-over-year. OTC Revenue: $6.3 million, up from $0.1 million in Q1 2025. Prediction Markets Revenue: $0.4 million, first full quarter contribution. Services Revenue and Interest Income: $24.5 million, up 122% year-over-year. Credit Card Revenue: $14.7 million, up nearly 300% year-over-year. Operating Expenses: $144.5 million, up 73% year-over-year. Net Loss: $109 million, improved by 27% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA: Loss of $59.9 million, improved from Q4 2025. Monthly Transacting Users: 589,000, up 17% year-over-year. Assets on Platform: $11.1 billion as of March 31, 2026. Cash and Cash Equivalents: $215.6 million at quarter end. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with GEMI. Is GEMI fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Release Date: May 15, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Gemini Space Station Inc (NASDAQ:GEMI) reported a 42% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $50.3 million, driven by credit card, OTC business, and prediction markets. The company received a derivatives clearing organization (DCO) license from the CFTC, enhancing its ability to clear and settle derivatives contracts. Gemini's prediction markets showed strong growth, with a 78% month-over-month increase in volume and over 100 million contracts traded since launch. The company launched agentic trading tools, allowing AI agents to autonomously trade and manage risk, positioning Gemini as a leader in this emerging field. A strategic $100 million investment by Winklevoss Capital into Gemini, funded in Bitcoin, underscores confidence in the company's future growth potential. Despite revenue growth, Gemini Space Station Inc (NASDAQ:GEMI) reported a net loss of $109 million for the quarter, though this was an improvement from the previous year. Crypto market volatility led to a 53% decline in total spot trading volume, impacting exchange revenue, which fell by 27% year-over-year. Operating expenses increased by 73% year-over-year, driven by one-time items such as stock-based compensation and severance costs. Staking revenue decreased by 31% year-over-year due to lower asset prices and reduced...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-15Update: Gemini Space Station Shares Rise After Q1 Results Top Estimates; Secures $100 Million Investment
MT Newswires
Update: Gemini Space Station Shares Rise After Q1 Results Top Estimates; Secures $100 Million Investment
(Updates with share movement in the headline and first paragraph, additional details on the investme
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-15Gemini Space Station Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
MarketBeat
Gemini Space Station Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
Interested in Gemini Space Station, Inc.? Here are five stocks we like better. Gemini’s Q1 revenue rose 42% year over year to $50.3 million even as crypto trading volumes fell sharply, showing the company is increasingly relying on non-trading businesses to drive growth. Services revenue became a much bigger part of the mix, up 122% to $24.4 million and nearly half of total revenue, led by a 300% jump in credit card revenue and strong growth in OTC and prediction markets. Losses narrowed and the founders backed the company with a $100 million investment, while Gemini also highlighted new regulatory licenses and product expansion plans aimed at building a broader “markets company” beyond crypto trading. Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ:GEMI) reported higher first-quarter revenue as the crypto platform said it is moving to diversify beyond digital asset trading through credit cards, over-the-counter trading, prediction markets and planned future products. On the company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings call, co-founder and President Cameron Winklevoss said Gemini has made “meaningful progress” toward its goal of becoming what he described as a “markets company,” rather than a business tied primarily to crypto market cycles. Interim CFO Danijela Stojanovic said total revenue rose 42% year-over-year to $50.3 million, even as crypto trading activity weakened materially from the prior-year period. → Micron Investors Face a High-Stakes Moment After the Latest Rally “This revenue growth was achieved against a backdrop of materially lower crypto trading volumes than Q1 of 2025,” Stojanovic said. Gemini’s transaction revenue was $24.1 million, roughly stable from a year earlier. Within that category, exchange revenue fell 27% year-over-year to $17.2 million, reflecting lower crypto market activity. Total spot trading volume dropped 53% to $6.3 billion from $13.5 billion in the first quarter of 2025. → How Bad Could Tesla’s Cybertruck Recall Be for Shares? Stojanovic said the smaller decline in exchange revenue compared with trading volume reflected “continued improvement” in Gemini’s fee economics. OTC revenue increased to $6.3 million from $0.1 million in the prior-year quarter. Stojanovic attributed the performance to both episodic client demand and structural improvements in the business, including new institutional clients added through Gemini’s eOTC API program. She cau...
TranscriptFY2026 Q12026-05-15FY2026 Q1 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 48 paragraphs
FY2026 Q1 earnings call transcript
Good day. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Gemini first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would like to hand the conference over to Ryan Todd, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining Gemini's first quarter 2026 earnings call. My name is Ryan Todd, Head of Investor Relations at Gemini. Joining me on the call today are Gemini's Co-Founders, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, and our Interim CFO, Danijela Stojanovic. Yesterday, we released our first quarter 2026 financial results. During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements which may vary materially from actual results and are based on management's current expectations, forecasts, and assumptions. Information concerning the risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause these results to differ is included in our SEC filings.
Our discussion today will also include certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in the earnings presentation on our investor relations website and on the SEC's website. Non-GAAP financial measures should be considered in addition to, not as a substitute for, GAAP measures. We'll start today's call with prepared remarks and then take questions. With that, let me turn the call over to our Founders, Cameron and Tyler.
Good morning. Thank you all for joining us on our Q1 2026 earnings call. I'm Cameron Winklevoss, President and Co-Founder of Gemini. Since announcing Gemini 2.0, we believe we have made meaningful progress towards our goal of building Gemini into a markets company. We started as a Bitcoin company. We became a crypto company. We are now building the super app for the markets economy, our vision of being the bridge to the future of money and markets. This quarter, we made meaningful progress towards that vision. While we still have significant work ahead, we grew revenue this quarter 42% and transaction revenue held steady year-over-year, even as trading volume declined more than 50% due to meaningful softness in the broader crypto market trading activity. While these are positive headline numbers, we recognize where our share price currently sits.
The price of Bitcoin is down roughly 30% since our IPO, and as a crypto-native business, we are tied to that cycle to some degree. We do not believe the Gemini of today is 1/6 of the Gemini that IPO'd. When we went public in September, we did not have a predictions marketplace. We do now. We were a crypto company. Today, we are building the foundation for so much more. Our ability to launch and scale market infrastructure is rooted in more than a decade of experience building Gemini's crypto marketplace. We have demonstrated this with our predictions product, which we chose to build in-house instead of partnering like some of our competitors. With our recently acquired DCO license from the CFTC, which Tyler will discuss shortly, we're even better equipped to bring this vision to life.
This license, combined with our experience building marketplaces, will help enable us to fully own the customer experience and deliver a best-in-class predictions marketplace. We truly believe that when you create value by offering more options to customers across multiple asset classes, crypto predictions, credit card rewards, and soon we expect stocks, you build a company that is indexed to markets broadly, not just to a single cycle. That is what Gemini is working toward becoming, and we believe the foundation we built this quarter is a meaningful step in that direction.
For these reasons, we think Gemini stock is significantly undervalued, which is why we made a strategic investment of $100 million into Gemini via Winklevoss Capital at a price of $14/share of the company's Class A common stock with the investment funded in Bitcoin. We strongly believe this investment will allow us to set up the company for its next phase of growth. With that, I'd like to turn it over to Tyler to discuss some of our business highlights this quarter and how they will shape our future.
Thanks, Cameron. Tyler here. This quarter, Gemini achieved product and regulatory milestones that will help set us up for success going forward. In April, Gemini received a derivatives clearing organization license from the CFTC. I want to spend a moment on what this is, why it matters, and what it unlocks. A DCO, or derivatives clearing organization, allows us to act as a clearinghouse, the entity that clears and settles derivatives contracts, prediction market contracts, event-based contracts, and down the road, futures, options, and perpetual contracts. The DCO uses the same clearing structure that has underpinned crucial derivatives markets for decades. This DCO follows our DCM, our designated contract market license, which we received in December 2025. A DCM allows you to list derivatives contracts. We started with events contracts for our prediction marketplace. The DCO is the other half of the puzzle.
Together, DCM plus DCO represent key milestones as we seek to build an end-to-end marketplace in-house without material third-party dependencies. This combination is rare. Most of our competitors have moved into derivatives through acquisition. Gemini built its DCM and DCO in-house, the same way we built our crypto exchange over the past decade. Our regulatory positioning is foundational, not bolted on. Holding the DCM and DCO ourselves helps unlock our ability to clear prediction market and event contract trades through our own infrastructure today. It also better positions us for what comes after predictions, which we believe is perpetual contracts. Perps are the most traded product in global crypto markets by a significant margin. Most of the price discovery for Bitcoin happens in perpetuals markets, not spot.
Right now, all of that volume and price discovery happens offshore on unregulated exchanges, largely because there has been no regulated path for perps in the United States. The crypto story in terms of regulated onshore price discovery does not fully start in America until perpetuals are permitted here. We believe that will happen in the United States soon based on the CFTC's public comments. We expect Gemini to be among the platforms best positioned to win in this arena when it arrives. In addition to securing our DCO, Gemini made strides this quarter in what we think will be the next frontier for trading, which is agentic trading. We launched the first agentic trading tool available directly through a regulated U.S.-based exchange.
Agentic trading allows customers to connect AI agents, including Claude, ChatGPT, and others directly to Gemini's full API to place trades, monitor markets, and manage risk autonomously. While we are still in early innings for agentic trading, we have long believed that Gemini will one day have more machines as customers than humans. Humans may have built crypto, but crypto is not so much money for humans as it is money for machines. Taken together, we believe our DCO license and agentic trading launch represents the first steps to building out our long-term vision of being the go-to super app for the future of money and markets in the United States. With that, I'll turn over the call to our Interim CFO, Danijela, to discuss our financial results for the quarter in greater detail.
Thank you, Cameron and Tyler. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'll start with a few key takeaways from the quarter, then walk you through the results in detail and close with our financial outlook for the year. Let me highlight three things up front. First, revenue grew 42% year-over-year to $50.3 million. That growth was broad-based, driven by the credit card, our OTC business, and our first full quarter contribution from prediction markets. Importantly, this revenue growth was achieved against a backdrop of materially lower crypto trading volumes than Q1 of 2025. Second, services revenue and interest income continued its structural shift, reaching $24.5 million and now representing 49% of total revenue, up from 31% in Q1 of 2025.
This diversification is central to our strategy of building a business that is less dependent on crypto market cycles. Third, our cost restructuring is taking hold. The roughly 30% workforce reduction completed in Q1 started flowing through the financials and will be more fully reflected in Q2 as we enter a lower run rate cost structure. Turning to revenue. Total revenue was $50.3 million, up 42% year-over-year from $35.3 million in Q1 of 2025. Transaction revenue maintained stable year-over-year at $24.1 million. Within that, there were meaningful moving parts worth walking through. Exchange revenue was $17.2 million, down 27% year-over-year, reflecting the significant pullback in crypto market activity. Total spot trading volume declined to $6.3 billion from $13.5 billion in Q1 of 2025.
That's a 53% decline in volume against only a 27% decline in exchange revenue, which reflects continued improvement in our fee economics. OTC revenue was $6.3 million compared to $0.1 million in Q1 of 2025. This performance reflects both opportunistic and structural tailwinds. The quarter included meaningful one-time volume driven by episodic client demand, contributing to an elevated baseline not fully expected to repeat. Importantly, underlying business momentum remained strong. The eOTC API program added new institutional clients during the quarter, expanding the desk's recurring revenue base and supporting a more durable growth trajectory going forward. For the first time, prediction markets contributed $0.4 million to transaction revenue, reflecting our first full quarter following the December 2025 launch.
Adoption accelerated throughout the quarter and has continued to accelerate into Q2, with April volume up 78% month-over-month. Since launch, the platform has surpassed 100 million contracts traded across more than 20,000 traders. As a reminder, this is still an early-stage product for us, and our focus today is on building liquidity, engagement, and market depth on our own infrastructure. We expect monetization to scale over time as the platform matures. Turning to services revenue and interest income, which was $24.4 million, up 122% year-over-year. The majority of this growth was driven by services, particularly the credit card, which I'll walk through now. Credit card revenue was $14.7 million, up nearly 300% year-over-year. As of quarter end, we had over 154,000 open card accounts, up 111,000 year-over-year.
Growth in Q1 of 2026 remained steady, though sign-ups can vary quarter-to-quarter, particularly as we continue to refine acquisition channels and strengthen risk controls as the portfolio scales. The expansion of the cardholder base is the primary driver of managed receivables growing from $69 million to $217 million over the same period, more than a tripling of the portfolio. Advisory fee revenue was $2.7 million, consistent with the prior quarter, reflecting our ongoing advisory services agreement with the strategic customer entered into during Q3 of 2025. There was no comparable revenue in Q1 of 2025. Custodial fee revenue was $1.9 million, roughly flat year-over-year. Staking revenue was $2.1 million, down 31% year-over-year, reflecting lower asset prices and reduced staking yields relative to the elevated crypto market levels in the prior year period. Turning to expenses.
Total operating expenses were $144.5 million in Q1, up 73% year-over-year. I want to be direct about what's in those numbers because there are meaningful one-time items that create some noise relative to our ongoing cost structure. Salaries and compensation were $65.4 million. This includes $24.2 million of stock-based compensation and $6.5 million of severance and related payroll taxes associated with the Q1 workforce reduction, the latter being a one-time item that will not repeat. Excluding those items, core cash compensation was $34.8 million, though it's worth noting that figure still includes partial quarter salary costs for the approximately 30% of employees who departed during Q1. The true run rate entering into Q2 is lower. Headcount at quarter end was approximately 441.
Sales and marketing was $19.1 million, up 111% year-over-year. Down significantly from the $32.9 million and $39 million we spent in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, respectively. We are continuing to deploy marketing capital opportunistically, calibrated to market conditions and acquisition ROI. Within that figure, brand and performance marketing was $7.6 million, and credit card rewards and promotional and referral incentives were $11.4 million. Transaction losses were $11.1 million, up from $4.1 million in Q1 of 2025. The increase was driven by three items. Our provision for expected credit losses on the credit card portfolio of $4.6 million, up from $2.5 million in Q1 of 2025 as the portfolio continues to scale.
A credit card fraud reserve of $4.1 million, a new item with no comparable charge in Q1 of 2025. ACH and other transaction losses of $2.4 million, up from $1.6 million in Q1 of 2025. The provision and fraud reserve reflect seasoning dynamics on a rapidly growing portfolio, and overall credit performance remains consistent with our expectations. We have also taken steps to further strengthen our fraud controls and monitoring. Technology expenses were $22.1 million, up 32% year-over-year, reflecting infrastructure investments to support platform growth and new product launches. General and administrative expenses were $21.7 million, up 55% year-over-year, driven primarily by higher legal expenses. Combined, tech and G&A was $43.7 million for the quarter.
On the bottom line, net loss was $109 million, an improvement of 27% year-over-year compared to a net loss of $149.3 million in Q1 of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $59.9 million compared to a loss of $92.2 million in Q4 of 2025 and a loss of $61.6 million in Q1 of 2025. The sequential improvement reflects the early impact of our cost actions, though the full benefit of the Q1 restructuring will begin to flow through in Q2. We are not satisfied with the current loss levels, but we believe the path forward is clear.
Scaling the card efficiently, growing predictions, and continuing to build recurring services revenue that compounds regardless of trading volumes while maintaining discipline on our expense base and leveraging the infrastructure we've built across the platform. A few platform metrics worth noting. Monthly transacting users were 589,000, up 17% year-over-year. That growth is occurring despite a softer trading environment, which reflects the platform diversification we've been building across the card, staking, and now prediction markets. Assets on platform were $11.1 billion as of March 31st, 2026, compared to $14.2 billion as of March 31st, 2025. That decline reflects lower crypto asset valuations relative to the elevated market levels in the prior year period, not a reduction in user engagement or assets managed. Let me close with our outlook.
We are not providing formal revenue guidance at this time, consistent with our approach last quarter, given the continued uncertainty in the macro environment. On expenses, the restructuring actions we announced in Q1 are expected to begin flowing fully through the cost structure in Q2. The key parameters we shared last quarter remain unchanged. To briefly recap those, cash compensation, excluding stock-based compensation and restructuring charges, is expected to decline 15%-20% relative to 2025 levels. Stock-based compensation is expected to total $100 million-$115 million for the full year. Technology and G&A combined is expected to range from $155 million-$190 million for the full year. Marketing, excluding rewards and promotions, is expected to run at 10%-15% of revenue.
On liquidity, we ended the quarter with $215.6 million in cash and cash equivalents. As Cameron and Tyler noted, our founders have completed a $100 million direct investment into Gemini funded in Bitcoin, further strengthening our balance sheet as we execute on our 2026 priorities. The through line across all of this is straightforward. We are growing revenue, diversifying away from digital asset trading, holding discipline on cost, and as our founders' commitment demonstrates, we have both the conviction and capital behind us to see it through. The focus for the balance of 2026 is about disciplined execution on each of these priorities. To summarize, Q1 showed meaningful progress on the priorities we laid out. Revenue grew 42% year-over-year. Services revenue and interest income now represent nearly half of total revenue, and our cost reset is underway.
The momentum in the card, the early traction in predictions, and the growth in our OTC business give us confidence that we are building a more durable platform. We have more work to do on profitability, and we are moving with urgency. We are building a more diversified, more disciplined business, and we believe we are better positioned to scale as market conditions improve. With that, I'll hand it back to Ryan to open up the Q&A.
We will now take questions from our research analysts. Questions were submitted to us in writing, and we will take one question per analyst. Our first question comes from Adam Frisch at Evercore, who asks, "The $100 million private placement at $14 a share is a strong vote of confidence. Can you discuss the strategic rationale behind the investment and whether there are any commercial or product implications, and how the additional liquidity affects your priorities across exchange, card, predictions, and derivatives?"
Thanks for the question, Adam. This is Cameron. In regards to our $100 million investment, our belief is that the Gemini stock is significantly undervalued at current levels, and we believe this investment reflects that belief and our conviction in Gemini. With respect to the use of funds, we're focused on being offensive and supporting existing as well as products that are hopefully coming to market soon, including equities. When we look at the business, we really feel it's disconnected. The share price is disconnected from the underlying business. When we look at where Gemini was when it launched in IPO'd in September of 2025, we don't believe that this is a business that's one-sixth of the value of that company that IPO'd, and in fact, quite the opposite.
We feel that we have since launched an entirely new marketplace of prediction markets, which we're really excited about. We're really encouraged with the growth so far. We've acquired a DCM license as well as a DCO license along the way, and those licenses alone are trading north of $100 million in the open market each. I don't think the share price reflects any of that underlying value, let alone the improvements in our product. So we're looking to continue to support existing products and focuses as well as future products and including equities, which we hope to launch soon.
The next question is from James Yaro at Goldman Sachs, who asks, "Could you comment on the status of the CLARITY Act? How do you expect this bill to evolve, and what are your latest views on the impacts on your business?"
We've been building a regulated exchange and custodian, for over a decade now in the U.S., via the state MTL path, and we will continue to do so until there is a federal framework, such as CLARITY. It definitely feels like we're getting closer to CLARITY. It's hard to predict exactly what the timing will be. But we're definitely encouraged with the direction and the pace that things are moving. I think that we've always believed that a good bill, the right bill, will be very positive for the market, and we welcome that. We hope that is the case and continues to sort of make its way through the rounds. At the same time, if for whatever reason it does stall out, we are a built and positioned in a very regulated posture, and we'll just continue building and doing what we're doing.
Our next question comes from Matt Coad at Truist, who asks: The prediction markets cross-sell continues to progress well, with 3.5% of our user base now putting in a trade since the product's inception last year. Could you provide some more detail on how you're driving this successful cross-sell, where you would expect the penetration rate to sit at the end of the year, and how you're seeing engagement levels trend as well?
Thanks for this question, Matt. The cross-sell, we're seeing a lot of good success there. We're very encouraged at the 3.4% so far. Hard to predict where that settles out, but I think that the story here is that we're very early with this product predictions within Gemini. We continue to surface it within the app. It's one of our core tabs. We also surface it in different buy flows. I think there's a number of users who still just haven't found it yet and don't, you know that Gemini is in predictions and are discovering it on a daily basis or a weekly basis.
We think that there's a lot of room to grow here, both within the Gemini ecosystem, but also people outside of it who are not currently customers today who are seeing our product on social media or hearing about it and curious to give it a try. We're seeing some cool results. We had 78% month-over-month growth in total prediction market volume. I think we did almost approximately $30 million in notional last month. Far this month, we've crossed $20 million in notional, so we think we will beat last month, and hopefully, you know, by a considerable amount. We'll have to see. I think the key thing is, are we continuing to grow month-over-month, and what is that growth rate? That's, I think, the name of the game right now.
We're seeing about half of that volume is coming from crypto contracts, which makes sense. We have obviously a very, you know, user base that's passionate about crypto contracts, and we've been adding just a lot more durations with monthly touch contracts, weekly, daily, hourly, 15 minutes, five minutes, starting with Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, and XRP now. We're just adding more contracts, more durations. We added a lot of real-world commodities in the past quarter, including oil, gold, silver. We're, you know, the story's early, and it's hard to say exactly, you know, where that gets saturated, but we think that there's people that are discovering the product and really liking it.
Our next question comes from Dan Dolev from Mizuho, who asks: On credit card, can you walk through current credit performance versus expectations and how funding is evolving as receivables grow, including what changes if macro softens? Combining a follow-up question asked: Can you speak to the higher provision for credit losses in the quarter? What happened there, and what is being done to prevent another incident of that size in the future?
Sure. Thanks so much, Dan, for the question. I'll try to walk through these questions one by one. On credit performance broadly, the portfolio is performing in line with our expectations. Our 30+ day delinquency rate was 3.8% at quarter end, and our annualized charge-off rate is running around 3.5%. Both of which sort of represent meaningful improvement from where we were a year ago when the portfolio was in its really earliest and most delinquency-prone stage. On the provision specifics, specifically, we don't see that $8.6 million figure you would have seen in our earnings release as a representative of the underlying credit trajectory. I want to be really clear about why.
As we also disclosed, roughly $4.1 million of that charge related to a discrete fraud event that occurred during the quarter. That item, we believe is non-recurring, and most importantly, we have taken real steps to strengthen our fraud controls to prevent a reoccurrence. Normalizing for that item, our core provision was approximately $4.6 million higher than Q4, and which does reflect some normal seasoning as the portfolio matures, but consistent with what we'd expect from a portfolio that has tripled in size over the past year. In terms of what happened with that fraud incident, we're not going to discuss the exact mechanics or attack vector for security reasons, but what we can say is that the issue was identified, contained, and fully reserved for during the quarter.
Following that incident, we've definitely implemented additional controls and monitoring enhancements across the affected workflows. I think what's important to note is fraud is not a static problem, so fraudsters continuously adapt their methods, particularly in digital financial ecosystems, and our controls and monitoring frameworks evolve alongside that. Just to add also, our pre-provision net revenue reached a new high of $3.8 million this quarter, which is up over 150% year-over-year. That's the signal on the underlying economics of the card business. You asked on funding. On funding, we have our warehouse facility in place that has scaled alongside receivables and provides us the capacity we need to support the portfolio today. Our funding costs are manageable, and we're actively evaluating our long-term funding mix as the portfolio continues to grow.
We maintain an open and ongoing dialogue with our funding partners and continue to stress test the portfolio under different macro scenarios. Stepping back, we continue to view the card less as a standalone product and more as a strategic engagement layer inside the Gemini ecosystem. Over half of our predictions traders are also holders of the Gemini Credit Card, and we remain very focused on credit discipline and portfolio economics, as well as the broader value creation that comes from driving deeper multi-product engagement across the platform. While quarterly growth rates may moderate relative to the initial high growth launch phase that we saw, we continue to believe that the card can be an engagement driver for the broader Gemini ecosystem and hopefully facilitate Gemini's long-term growth.
The next question comes from Michael Cyprys from Morgan Stanley. What drove the strong OTC performance? Is this a function of crypto market volatility and users opting for a different approach, or is there something more structural going on, and should we expect that momentum to carry forward? As a quick follow-up on staking, anything to call out on staking being lower than expected? Do you view this alongside a downturn in trading activity?
Sure. Thanks, Michael. We're very pleased with the OTC performance this quarter. This quarter really reflected a combination of both market conditions and underlying business momentum. I'll touch on both. On the market side, there was some episodic activity during the quarter tied to client positioning and periods of market volatility, which contributed to elevated volumes. We view the continued maturity of the platform itself as the most important trend though. Over the last several quarters, we have expanded our electronic OTC capabilities, onboarded additional API-driven institutional counterparties, and also deepened engagement with existing clients. We're increasingly seeing repeat flow from clients integrating Gemini into their trading infrastructure rather than approaching the desk opportunistically. We will continue to look for ways to expand our OTC offerings and capabilities.
In terms of sustainability, we would not necessarily extrapolate the exact Q1 growth rate or assume every quarter will benefit from the same level of episodic large trades. OTC can be naturally somewhat lumpy quarter-to-quarter, but structurally, we do believe the business is stronger today than it was a year ago. Our client base is broader, electronic penetration is increasing, and institutional engagement remains healthy. While volatility can amplify activity in any given quarter, we think there is still meaningful underlying growth trajectory in the product itself. I'll touch on staking as well. Staking was down 31% year-over-year, and there are two straightforward factors that's really driving that. The first is crypto asset prices. Staking revenue is the direct function of the value of assets staked on our platform.
When ETH and Solana prices are lower relative to a year ago, the dollar value of rewards that we generate for customers and the fees we earn on that are proportionally lower. That's really the majority of the year-over-year decline, and it's a dynamic that's fully correlated with the broader crypto market environment. The second factor is staking yields on the networks themselves, which have moderated from the elevated levels that we saw in early 2025. We don't view this as a concerning signal for the staking business. During the first quarter of 2026, our team completed a full migration of our users to Staking 2.0, which is a ground-up rebuild of our staking infrastructure that we believe fundamentally changes our ability to grow in this business going forward. The new architecture enables auto-compounding for ETH validators.
It reduces the redemption time from roughly 50 days to eight days for the vast majority of staked funds and gives us the infrastructure foundation to rapidly onboard new networks and institutional customers. Lastly, we have also launched a fully rebuilt staking UX during the quarter. While the revenue line is reflecting the macro environment, the underlying investment in the platform positions us well when asset prices and yields recover.
Our final question comes from John Todaro at Needham. Prediction markets are still in the early stage, but great to see 78% month-over-month growth in April. What type of clients are trading prediction markets? More specifically, are there any specific categories within prediction markets that your clients are trading? As a quick follow-up, are there any categories around these markets that are not currently offered to clients where you see long-term growth opportunities?
Thanks for the question. The, the crypto contracts are one of our biggest categories. I think they account for about 50% of the contracts traded. As I mentioned earlier, we have all types of durations on various crypto contracts, starting with Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP, and Zcash. Zcash in particular has been really popular the last week or so with the recent price action and run-up in price. Then we have a full suite of spot contracts. Those are also quite popular. We added in the past quarter a lot of real-world commodities, including oil, the price of WTI, the price of Brent, we have durations on that from monthly to weekly to daily contracts, we'll continue to expand that outward. We've added some weather contracts.
We've seen interest there. I think we'll continue to go wider and deeper. I think we have hundreds of contracts trading per day, but I think that can easily scale into the thousands with all the different price levels. We see continued interest from market makers and participants who are already in the space on other venues who see the growth in our marketplace and are curious to provide liquidity and trade it. We're just getting started. I think we got our, we launched in December 15th.
I think we're maybe less than perhaps two quarters or just over two quarters since launch, and the product is sort of unrecognizable from the MVP that we launched in late 2025. We continue to ship improvements multiple times a week and so we're really excited about it, and I think our customers are realizing, "Oh, wow, you guys are really making a lot of progress here. I don't need to leave Gemini. I can do all of my predictions here." We're excited about that.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-30Robinhood Leads Crypto Stocks Lower After Disappointing Earnings
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Robinhood Leads Crypto Stocks Lower After Disappointing Earnings
Down 14% after disappointing earnings, Robinhood Markets’ (NASDAQ: $HOOD) stock is leading a rout in crypto-related securities on April 29. Cryptocurrency stocks are falling after Robinhood's earnings missed Wall Street forecasts and amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Robinhood reported a 47% decline in crypto-related revenue during this year’s first quarter, stunning many analysts and investors and leading to the current rout. More From Cryptoprowl: Ripple, The Company Behind XRP, Is Valued At $50 Billion Eightco Secures $125 Million Investment From Bitmine And ARK Invest, Shares Surge Blockchain Projects Decline 75% As Developers Shift To A.I. Stanley Druckenmiller Says Stablecoins Could Reshape Global Finance New York Stock Exchange Invests $600 Million In Polymarket Other crypto stocks are down sharply on the day, with U.S. exchanges Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: $COIN) and Bullish (NYSE: $BLSH) each down 8%. Gemini (NASDAQ: $GEMI), the crypto exchange run by billionaire twin brothers Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, is down 6%. At the same time, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: $BTC) miners Riot Platforms (NASDAQ: $RIOT) and MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: $MARA) are down 7%. Strategy (NASDAQ: $MSTR), the largest corporate owner of BTC, is down 4% on the day. The declines also come as the price of Bitcoin slides lower, dropping to $75,500 U.S. in afternoon trading after hovering above $77,000 U.S. earlier in the day. Adding to the pressure on risk assets was U.S. President Donald Trump rejecting an Iranian proposal to end the naval blockade and open the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route. That news sent oil prices surging 6% higher on concerns that energy supply chains in the Middle East will remain under pressure for some time. Crypto stocks could be roiled further by upcoming financial results from mega-cap technology names such as Alphabet (NASDAQ: $GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ: $AMZN), Meta (NASDAQ: $META), and Microsoft (NASDAQ: $MSFT), all of which are due to report earnings after the bell.
TranscriptFY2025 Q42026-03-24FY2025 Q4 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 24 paragraphs
FY2025 Q4 earnings call transcript
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Gemini's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Ryan Todd, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thanks, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining this morning for Gemini's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call. My name is Ryan Todd, Head of Investor Relations at Gemini. Joining me on the call today are Gemini's founders, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss; and Interim CFO, Danijela Stojanovic. Yesterday, we released our fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results. During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements, which may vary materially from actual results and are based on management's current expectations, forecasts and assumptions. Information concerning the risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause these results to differ is included in our SEC filings. Our discussion today will also include certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in the shareholder letter on our Investor Relations website and on the SEC's website. Non-GAAP financial measures should be considered in addition to, not as a substitute for GAAP measures. We'll start today's call with prepared remarks and then take questions. And with that, let me turn the call over to our founders, Cameron and Tyler.
Thanks, Ryan. Cameron here. 2025 was a remarkable year for Gemini. We crossed the threshold into the public markets and became a public company on September 12 after being a private company for over a decade. On that day, the price of Bitcoin was $115,000. Since then, Bitcoin has traveled down to $60,000 and then back up to around $70,000 where it hovers today. A reminder that one of the biggest challenges for crypto builders and investors is its cyclical nature. And a reminder that in order to move beyond these cycles, you need to build beyond them. We started as a Bitcoin company. We became a crypto company. We are now becoming a markets company. If Gemini's first decade was building a bridge to the future of money, today, we are building a bridge to the future of money in markets via a super app. Our first foray into people's daily financial lives beyond buy, sell and store crypto began with the Gemini credit card, which delivered strong growth last year. In 2025, card sign-ups grew nearly 15x and credit card revenue reached $33.1 million, up 185% year-over-year. Many of these Gemini credit card customers engage with Gemini multiple times a day to earn crypto rewards when they spend with the Gemini credit card. December marked a new era for Gemini with the launch of Gemini Predictions. We believe prediction markets will be as big or bigger than today's capital markets. They offer a profound and boundless opportunity to leverage the wisdom of the crowds and the power of markets to provide unique insights into the future. Our investment in securing a designated contract market DCM license from the CFTC to launch our own prediction marketplace positions us as an early mover on this new and exciting frontier. We have been building and operating regulated marketplace infrastructure for over a decade: sequencers, matching engines, order books, real-time settlement, post-trade reporting, custody infrastructure and more. This is a big part of what we do best. Our prediction markets are new instruments running on infrastructure we already know how to build and operate. As a result, we chose not to partner with a third party or license someone else's technology and instead build it ourselves. And in doing so, this also means we have chosen to invest in developing the unique operational capabilities for creating and resolving thousands of contracts on a daily basis, a new and fascinating challenge with growing complexity as we expect the cardinality of these markets to continue to explode over time. In short, we built Gemini predictions from the ground up because we want to own and operate our prediction markets end-to-end for the long term. We believe in the power of markets. Bitcoin is a store of value that is a product of market forces. The best economies are market-based. Markets are truth over the long term, and we believe that we are just figuring out how to apply them to the world around us. From politics to economic indicators, business, tech, culture and sports, prediction markets are forecasting the future more accurately and more quickly than traditional posters, experts and the media. This is a profound change in the world's source of truth and an equally profound solution to the loss of trust in our institutions and resulting epistemological crisis. The printing press created the fourth estate or the public press. The Internet created the fifth estate or decentralized public press. Prediction markets are creating the sixth estate. Decentralized information, combined with the integrity and accountability of markets [indiscernible] in the game. Like money, markets are an innovation and technology that continue to evolve thousands of years after they were first invented. From the birth of the bond markets in the Italian city states in the 12th century to the launch of the first stock market in Amsterdam in the 17th century to electronic trading replacing the open outcry of humans in trading pits on Wall Street in the 21st century, markets continue to grow and develop. Just when you thought the money experiment had reached its terminal steady state, Bitcoin emerged. Just when you thought markets were done maturing, prediction markets caught fire. Gemini was founded to help build and shape a new era of money. Today, we have a similar opportunity to help build and shape a new era of markets. Unfolding in parallel is the meteoric ascent of AI. Once these strains of technology, money, markets and AI converge, we believe they will supercharge each other in dramatic and novel ways that generate new economic activity that we are uniquely positioned to be at the center of and help build and shape to. This caldron of Promethean fire could make progress in these fields up to this point appear rather quaint. We have long felt that it is only a matter of time before we have more machines as customers than humans. Machines can't open a bank account, but they can easily plug into protocols and use crypto to become rational economic actors. Humans may have built crypto, but crypto is not so much money for humans as it is money for machines. We're just starting to see this take shape. Here's one example. For the first decade, we had 3 API protocols: REST, WebSockets and FIX. We're now adding a fourth, Model Context Protocol, or MCP, an open-source API interface designed specifically for AI agents like large language models or LLMs. While we believe AI is going to change the composition of our customer base, it's already changing the composition of our workforce and how we work. Up until recently, the impact of software engineers could differ by an order of magnitude or 10x. Great engineers would have 10x more impact than good engineers. AI has completely changed the game, expanding this paradigm by another order of magnitude at a minimum, making a 10xer, now a 100xer. Critically, we are seeing that this step change holds true for every engineer who adopts AI in their workflows. And it also holds true for non-engineering work as well. Doing more with less has never been more true or possible, and we believe this trend line is only just beginning. Notably, the force multiplier effect of AI for Gemini and our workforce is quite new. It wasn't until the end of last year that AI agents for coding and software development had a splitting of the atom moment. While different pockets of our technology organization have been experimenting with AI and their workflows for a while, AI was not core to them. For example, late last summer, when we were in the middle of our IPO roadshow, AI was used in only 8% of the code being written and shipped to production. In December, however, the future arrived. Models hit an inflection point and in combination with the internal tools we built for [indiscernible] management, AI is now too powerful not to use at Gemini. Today, AI is used in more than 40% of our production code changes, and we expect that number to climb close to 100% in the not-too-distant future. Not using AI at Gemini will soon be the equivalent of showing up to work with a type writer instead of a laptop. As a result, we have reduced the size of our workforce by roughly 30% since the start of 2026. We believe that a smaller organization leveraging the right tools isn't just more efficient, it's actually faster. Gemini started in America in 2015. Since then, we expanded our areas of operation to more than 60 countries. These foreign markets proved hard to win in for various reasons, and we found ourselves stretched thin with a level of organizational and operational complexity that drove our cost structure up and slowed us down. And we didn't have the demand in these regions to justify them. The reality is that America has the world's greatest capital markets and America has always been where it's at for Gemini. Furthermore, we are encouraged by the stated goals of the current SEC and CFTC and their efforts thus far to make the super app possible in America and usher in a new golden age of markets. So we decided it was time for us to focus and double down on America. This will allow us to build more meaningful and powerful relationships with new and existing customers. To that end, in addition to reducing the size of our workforce, we have reduced the areas in which we operate by exiting the U.K., EU and Australian markets. We expect this will help reduce our total expenses in line with our headcount reduction and meaningfully accelerate our path to profitability even in the backdrop of the current crypto market, simplify, consolidate, then accelerate. We love being a public company, perhaps a somewhat surprising statement when looking at the performance of our share price over the past 6 months since we've been public. But rather than being dispirited, we are motivated. And while it's never fun to see your stock drop, we love the feedback loop. It forces us to confront what is working and what is not working, and it makes us sharper. It's challenging, but absolutely the right challenge. We view this feedback loop as one of the greatest benefits of being a public company as growers losing a race provided invaluable feedback on the changes you needed to make in order to win. The path to the Olympics is paved in lost races and the invaluable learning that comes from them. So we welcome the feedback and love the challenge. 2025 marked the end of Gemini 1.0 and 2026 marks the beginning of Gemini 2.0. This starts with our shift into becoming a markets company with Gemini predictions and using the same infrastructure to power our perpetual futures contracts once these contracts are allowed in the U.S. And it continues with our plan to launch U.S. equities as the next phase of our platform, giving our customers access to the largest, most liquid markets in the world. Altogether, we have developed the foundation and building blocks for a super app, where users will be able to fulfill their existing and future financial needs all in one place, amazing awaits.
Thank you, Cameron and Tyler, and great to speak with everyone. Before I turn to the numbers, I'll briefly note that I stepped into the interim CFO role earlier this year after serving as Gemini's Chief Accounting Officer since May of 2025. I've been closely involved in the company's financial reporting, the IPO process and the prior 2 quarters as a public company. The broader finance organization remains fully in place, and there has been no disruption to our financial reporting or operational execution. I will begin with a few key takeaways from the quarter before walking through the results in more detail. First, revenue grew sequentially despite a materially weaker crypto trading environment in Q4. Second, the business continued to diversify meaningfully. Services revenue more than doubled year-over-year and now represent over 1/3 of our revenue. And third, the restructuring actions we announced earlier this year repositioned the company with a significantly lower cost base going into 2026. Now turning to the results. Net revenue for the fourth quarter was $56.4 million, up 13% from $49.8 million in Q3. This growth occurred despite a more challenging market backdrop. The biggest driver of that change was volatility in the crypto market. Bitcoin fell nearly 47% from its October high, and that environment put real pressure on trading volumes and transaction fees. The credit card business kept growing through it, which helped offset some of that, but Q4 was a harder macro quarter than Q3. I'll walk through the key components. Transaction revenue was $26.7 million, up slightly from $26.3 million in Q3 on spot volumes of $11.5 billion compared to $16.4 billion in Q3. Retail volumes came in at $1.6 billion and institutional at $9.9 billion. As a reminder, we earn fees from both retail and institutional customers with rates varying by order type, instant orders at the top of the range and active trader orders lower. While volumes declined, transaction revenue proved relatively resilient. This reflects improvements in fee economics across both retail and institutional trading as well as a mix shift in retail trading towards higher fee order types. Services revenue for the quarter was $26.5 million, up 33% sequentially from $19.9 million in Q3. This category continues to grow quickly and represents one of the most important structural shifts in our business. A few things worth calling out here. Credit card revenue was $16 million, up 87% from Q3's $8.5 million. We added nearly 30,000 new card sign-ups in the quarter compared to 64,000 in Q3, and receivable balances grew to $219.8 million. Staking revenue was $5.1 million, down 13% from Q3's $5.9 million, largely reflecting lower crypto asset prices during the quarter. However, we continue to see adoption of staking across the platform, including through auto staking features integrated with the credit card rewards program. Q4 was our first full quarter with Card Auto staking rewards live, which came alongside the Solana card launch in October. That feature is a great example of natural multiproduct engagement in providing customers a way to stake organically. They pick a stakable reward. It gets staked automatically on every card transaction and their staking customer without any extra steps. Staking balances at quarter end were approximately $509 million. Staking fee rate adjustment we made in Q3 also ran through a full quarter for the first time. Let me turn to expenses. Total operating expenses for Q4 were $171.7 million, essentially flat compared to Q3. Compensation and headcount expenses declined to $72.3 million from $82.5 million in Q3, reflecting lower stock-based compensation expense. Stock-based comp in Q4 was $36 million. Headcount at quarter end was 650 compared to 677 in Q3. Importantly, the roughly 30% workforce reduction that occurred in early 2026 is not yet reflected in those numbers. That impact starts flowing through in Q1 of 2026 with the full run rate savings expected to be reflected by Q3 and beyond. As of March 1, total headcount was approximately 445. Sales and marketing was $39 million, up from Q3's $32.9 million, reflecting the continued growth and momentum of the credit card portfolio and increased cardholder spending, which drove higher crypto rewards during the fourth quarter. As we've said consistently, we treat marketing as a variable line and calibrate it to what we are seeing in acquisition performance and growth opportunities. For the full year, sales and marketing was $97.1 million or $52.5 million, excluding credit card rewards and promotions, which remained in line with the $45 million to $60 million range we previously guided to. Transaction processing expenses were $7.3 million, down from Q3's $8.6 million, reflecting lower trading volumes during the quarter. Transaction losses were $6 million, down from Q3's $7.7 million. This includes a provision for credit losses on the card of $2.8 million, which remained broadly consistent with the prior quarter. Overall, credit quality across the card portfolio continues to remain stable as the book scales. Technology and infrastructure was $22.3 million, up from Q3's $20.3 million, mainly reflecting higher cloud infrastructure and software licensing costs as the platform scaled. General and administrative was $24.9 million, up from Q3's $19.3 million, driven mainly by higher professional services and ongoing public company operating costs. Full year tech and G&A came in at $154.6 million, in line with our guidance range. Now turning briefly on to full year metrics. We served approximately 601,000 MTUs as of December 31, up 17% year-over-year, reflecting continued growth in engagement as users adopt additional products across the platform. Full year net revenue was $174 million compared to $141 million in 2024, up 24% year-over-year. Transaction revenue for the year was $98 million, while services and interest revenue reached $76 million, representing a significant and growing portion of our overall revenue base. This shift towards services is a key structural change, reducing dependence on trading activity. Services and interest revenue came in ahead of the $60 million to $70 million range we provided at our third quarter earnings call. This was driven primarily by stronger-than-expected card flows with more than 116,000 new card sign-ups during the year in response to card addition launches such as the XRP card. We saw growth across several other services categories. Custodial fee revenue increased 25% year-over-year, driven by higher average crypto assets under custody. We also recognized approximately $4.8 million of advisory revenue related to services provided to a strategic customer as well as $1.2 million from new on-chain offerings, including integrations and token listing services. As we continue expanding the platform, we see increasing opportunities to drive monetization across multiple services as users engage with additional products beyond trading. Total operating expenses for the full year were $525 million versus $308 million in 2024. The year-over-year increase was driven largely by 3 main things: first, stock-based compensation tied to the IPO, including the Q3 bonus accrual that settled in equity; second, the significant marketing investments we made after going public to drive card growth; and third, continued spend in technology, compliance and public company infrastructure costs. These investments were deliberate and the restructuring actions we announced are designed to reset the company's cost structure going forward. Full year adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $258 million, which is inclusive of $33.4 million of net realized and unrealized losses. On a GAAP basis, full year net loss was $582.8 million. It is important to note that a substantial portion of the net loss relates to noncash items. These include $178.5 million of fair value losses on our prior related party instruments and mark-to-market adjustments on crypto assets as well as $85 million of stock-based compensation expense associated with the equity awards issued in connection with our IPO. We believe that adjusted EBITDA is a useful way to look at the underlying performance of the business. That said, our adjusted EBITDA result is not where we want it to be, and we've made decisions since year-end that are designed to change that. Now briefly on the balance sheet. We ended the year with approximately $252 million in cash and cash equivalents. The largest cash outflow in the quarter was the $117 million repayment of the Galaxy loan, which was completed in Q4 and removed that obligation from our balance sheet. As a result, we enter 2026 with a simpler balance sheet and lower debt levels. Following the restructuring actions announced earlier this year, we expect our normalized operating cash losses to decline meaningfully. Going forward, our focus is on continuing to narrow the gap to profitability through disciplined cost management and growth in higher-margin services revenue. The card warehouse facility had $154.4 million outstanding at year-end against $188 million in pledged receivables, supporting capacity of $250 million. As the receivables book grows, we'll execute additional funding capacity to support expected growth. On restructuring costs, the $11 million in pretax charges associated with the Gemini 2.0 plan will land almost entirely in Q1 of 2026 and are expected to be cash charges. They cover the U.K., EU and Australia wind down and the headcount reductions. Timing on some of the international pieces will depend on local consultation requirements, but we expect the full plan to be substantially complete by midyear. We expect these actions to simplify the organization and reduce our operating cost base going forward. Before I turn to the full year outlook, let me share what we are seeing so far in Q1 2026. Through February, trading volume was approximately $5.3 billion, down from Q4 levels as broader trading activity has continued to soften. On the card, payment volume has exceeded $330 million with over 150,000 open card accounts. And on predictions, approximately 15,000 users have traded since launch across more than 12,000 listed contracts. Total monthly transacting users across the platform were approximately 606,000. As always, we urge caution in extrapolating partial quarter activity. With that context, let me turn to how we're thinking about fiscal year 2026. At this time, we are not providing total operating expense guidance for the year. With the restructured cost base still taking shape and the macro environment that is difficult to forecast, we think the more useful approach is to frame the key expense categories individually. The restructuring actions we implemented earlier this year began flowing through the cost structure in Q2. Since year-end, we have reduced headcount by approximately 30% from peak levels. Because 2025 compensation reflected the full year at pre-restructuring staffing levels, the year-over-year decline is more moderate than the underlying headcount reductions. We expect compensation, excluding stock-based comp and restructuring charges to decline 15% to 20% relative to 2025. Stock-based compensation is expected to total $100 million to $115 million in 2026. 2025 included only 2 quarters of stock-based compensation at post-IPO levels following our September listing. The full year figure is higher in absolute terms, but the quarterly run rate is stabilizing as the IPO-related grant cycle normalizes. Technology and G&A is expected to range from $155 million to $190 million. The lower end reflects the post-restructuring normalized base. The width of the range reflects the variable costs that scale with card and trading activity, and we plan to narrow this range as we gain visibility through the year. Marketing expenses, excluding rewards and promotions, are expected at 10% to 15% of revenue, depending on market conditions and the opportunities we see in our highest returning acquisition channels. On the revenue side, our credit card product remains the principal engine for acquisition and growth. Predictions are still early, but with more than 15,000 users since December, we see early traction as encouraging, and it is central to where we are taking the company. While 2025 was the most expensive year in the company's history, given our IPO, the card investments and international expansion, the actions we've taken since then are designed to ensure that 2026 looks very different financially. Overall, we believe that the organization we enter 2026 with is leaner, more focused and positioned to drive improved operating leverage as we continue to scale our business. Together, we expect these dynamics to result in an improvement in adjusted EBITDA in 2026 as we operate with a more disciplined cost structure and a more diversified revenue base. To summarize, 2025 was a year of significant transformation for Gemini. We went public, scaled our credit card program, expanded and diversified revenue through services, launched prediction markets and took decisive steps to reset our cost structure. We enter 2026 with a simpler organization, a lower expense base and a more durable business model. We see the core story of Gemini today as straightforward. The business is becoming less dependent on crypto trading volumes and increasingly driven by recurring and diversified platform revenue. And with that, we will now turn to questions. Thanks, everyone.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from James Yaro at Goldman Sachs, who asks, could you update us on the drivers of the recent executive departures and how this fits into your new strategy?
Thanks for this question. So this summer was a different world. And when we IPO-ed in September, the price of Bitcoin was about $115,000 per coin. Of course, the markets dropped significantly from that point in time. But in addition, our ability to build a super app in America with predictions, there's now a path forward for that. And with the inflection point of AI, we have determined that we can move faster as a smaller, flatter AI-enabled organization that is still, of course, very much founder-led. So we think that we have the right team and the right organizational structure for today and tomorrow.
Our next question comes from Matt Coad at Truist, who asks, you continue to see traction growing your user base despite the rough crypto market backdrop. What do you believe is driving this user growth? And how do you plan to cross-sell prediction markets into this large and growing user base?
Thanks for the question. I think I can start here and then maybe kick it off to Cameron or Tyler to speak a little bit more on predictions. So we're very pleased by the continued growth we see in our user base, particularly given the broader market backdrop. I think one of the key drivers here is we're continuing to see meaningful user acquisition through our credit card program and just alongside broader engagement driven by new products that we're introducing and diversifying our revenue base, such as predictions. So we'll hand it over to see if Cameron or Tyler want to touch on predictions a little bit more.
So Gemini started -- when we started in 2015, we were a Bitcoin company. And people came to us and they could buy, sell and store Bitcoin. Over time, we became a crypto company, and we added additional money words like stake, where users could stake their assets with us. And then we added the Gemini credit card, and that's become an active part of people's financial lives who want to earn crypto back every time they swipe. And we're going to continue to add things to our product where users have reasons to do more with us over time. And eventually, like a number of these activities will continue to be independent of crypto cycles. And I think that we're excited to see the engagement with prediction markets, our credit card and other things that we're going to bring to the Gemini app so that people don't have a reason to go elsewhere.
The next question comes from Adam Frisch at Evercore, who asks, can you help us frame the path to sustain positive stand-alone card economics, specifically the relative contributions from rewards optimization, lower acquisition costs, provision and credit normalization and cheaper broader funding capacity?
I can take this one. Thanks for the question, Adam. So we're really encouraged by the progress that we made in Q4, reaching near breakeven on the card. The card business has scaled really quickly, and we believe it has a clear path to profitability as the portfolio matures. There's a few primary levers that we think of. So first, on the revenue side, we're seeing strong growth driven by interchange as spend increases. And then also important to note, interest income is still under earning relative to the size of the receivables space. So as the portfolio seasons and matures, interest income becomes a meaningful tailwind. And then on the cost side, we have several levers really. So rewards are the largest expense today, but these were intentional and front-loaded to drive adoption and really establish the credit card, and it worked. We went from roughly 30,000 open accounts at the start of '25 to now over 150,000 as of March 1. And when you think about it, the Bitcoin card has only been out for about 9 months, XRP for about 5 months. So we're just getting started with this program. And rewards are really fully within our control, and we expect to optimize those over time. And to add to that, we've also really been pleased with the organic sign-up direction on a smaller spend base. We're still averaging well north of 100 sign-ups a day, which is more than double where we were a year ago. And then we're also seeing improvements in bank fees as we scale, which will reflect better underlying economics. And then from a credit perspective, the performance is trending in the right direction. We see loss rates stabilizing and also continuing to improve as the book matures. And then finally, on funding. So while funding costs are now coming into the model, we expect those to become more efficient as the portfolio grows and also as financing options expand. The expansion of the funding facility is really an important step. And longer term, we see opportunities to lower the cost of capital and diversify funding sources as the portfolio grows. So putting it all together, we're already near breakeven on a pre-provision basis and the path to sustained profitability is driven really by a combination of portfolio seasoning, cost optimization and scale-driven efficiencies. So we don't need one single lever to do all the work. It's really incremental improvements across each of these areas that we believe will drive the card business into consistent profitability.
The next question comes from Michael Cyprys at Morgan Stanley. 15,000 users have used Prediction Markets through the end of February. How has that translated to revenue? Where do you see the growth potential from there? How do you compete versus peers that have a higher number of active users?
Thanks for this question, Michael. So we will provide an update on revenue in the near future, but it's very early at this point. But we are very encouraged with the fact that 15,000 customers have already engaged with this marketplace, which is brand new, and we did not have even a quarter ago. So we're very excited that our users are engaging with the product. We continue to grow that number on a daily basis and add many new contracts to the offering. I think crypto is a great example. I think we started with monthly contracts. We are now down -- moved down to weekly, daily, hourly, 15-minute and just offering all these different types of intervals and ways for people to hedge and trade around the price of crypto, and we're just getting started. So we're very encouraged. I think that looking at the market as a whole, it's also very early for this market, and we see the pie only growing from here. And we think we're one of the few people who are building the full end-to-end marketplace for predictions. And we're excited that our customers -- it's resonating with them.
Great. And just to add on to that, we've been building technology trading systems in marketplaces for well over a decade. So this is -- this is -- these are the kind of things that we know how to do very well. We have a website, we have a mobile app. We have API interfaces. And we've been doing market surveillance. We know how to onboard customers, KYC them and build great trading and marketplace experiences. So this is very much an extension of the over a decade of experience and expertise that we've developed over the years.
The next question comes from John Todaro at Needham.
How are you thinking about capital raising and liquidity if we assume crypto volumes remain lower than 2025 levels through 2026 and 2027?
Thanks for the question, John. So we really appreciate it. And we're planning the business with a conservative set of assumptions, which include a scenario where volumes remain below '25 levels through '26 and '27 as well. And from a liquidity standpoint, we've taken really meaningful steps to reduce our cost base and improve cash efficiency. And really, we're focused on scaling a more durable recurring revenue streams that are less dependent on trading volumes. So our main focus is to execute on our operating plan with that discipline in mind. But with that said, we're always evaluating opportunities to strengthen our balance sheet and support sustainable growth. And if there are opportunities for this on attractive terms, we would consider them. But we're, first and foremost, focused on demonstrating the operating improvements and letting the results really create the conditions for any future transaction or capital raise. But the key point is that we aim to build a model that can sustain itself across cycles and not one that depends on near-term recovery in volumes.
Yes. So look, as founders, we've been building Gemini for over a decade. We don't just have our skin in the game. We have our entire bodies in the game. We're deeply committed to Gemini and the mission and very excited to continue building it and as we expand the mission into the super app. And I think one of the things that we've talked about is that, that really helps us break free of the crypto cycles and give customers things that they can do throughout their daily financial lives, whether it's using a credit card or trading predictions. We're hoping to launch U.S. equities as well, investing in U.S. capital markets and really building out a more durable story of revenue and engagement that moves beyond simply buy, sell, store or say, crypto, which is obviously very core to the business, but we want to build on that and give our customers more reasons to use Gemini. And we're seeing the beginnings of that. And I think we're really excited to keep doing that. So even if crypto prices do remain depressed for some prolonged period of time, we will be building other products that continue to drive engagement and growth of our business.
The next question comes from Pete Christiansen at Citi. What is Gemini's OpEx discipline going forward? And has management put in place guardrails that helps ensure eventual profitability at the EBITDA level?
Thanks for the question, Pete. So OpEx discipline is a core focus for us coming out of the restructuring. We've reset the business to a lower fixed cost base, and we put clear guardrails in place around any incremental spend. So that includes being very selective on headcount growth and tying it directly to revenue or strategic priorities and also continue to manage marketing as a variable lever really based on ROI and market conditions. And so that's a real lever that we can dial up or down depending on market conditions and requiring clear payback threshold for any new investments. And just as importantly, we've become much more focused as an organization, so prioritizing a smaller set of high-impact initiatives and exiting or scaling back areas that just didn't meet our return thresholds. And that really allows us to concentrate our resources and our capital where we have the strongest product market fit and demand. So we believe that the organization is now structured to drive really operating leverage as volumes and engagement recovers. And what's important to add is we don't need to meaningfully re-expand the cost base to achieve our growth target. A lot of the growth from here really comes from just better monetization of our existing user base and also just leveraging the infrastructure that we've already built. So I'd say the right way to think about this is we have a relatively stable OpEx base coming out of the restructuring with modest or highly targeted investments layered on top rather than us returning to a broad-based spending. And if 2025 was the year of investment, I'd say 2026 is really the year of focus and discipline.
The final question comes from Dan Dolev at Mizuho. Given the regulatory and competitive landscape in crypto and prediction markets, what are the biggest external risks you're managing against in 2026? And what would you point to as your most underappreciated competitive advantage?
Thanks for the question, Dan. So I think one of the things that we want to talk about is the fact that, obviously, there's a lot of effort to pass a crypto market structure bill. And I think what is very encouraging to see is the SEC and the CFTC in parallel are doing great work to bring about the super app era independent of a bill. And so while we are hopeful that a good bill will ultimately get passed, there is a lot of great work going on at both agencies to create a path for super apps in the event that a bill does not pass for whatever reason. So we believe like the future for crypto in America has never been brighter. And I think that sort of there is a lot of great work being done that we're excited about. I think the second point that I'd like to make is that we are one of the, I think, the few end-to-end prediction marketplaces that also has a crypto marketplace within the same organization. And so we believe there's a lot of synergies for people who want to trade, for example, a Bitcoin event contract, but also be able to trade spot Bitcoin within the same place and hopefully eventually perpetual futures down the road in U.S. equities. And so I think that being an end-to-end marketplace for both predictions and spot as opposed to plugging into another marketplace, we believe that's an advantage for us going forward.
At this time, there are no more questions. Thank you all for listening, and we'll talk to you soon.
That concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-03-21Gemini Space Station Inc (GEMI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Growth Amidst ...
GuruFocus.com
Gemini Space Station Inc (GEMI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Growth Amidst ...
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Net Revenue: $56.4 million in Q4, up 13% from $49.8 million in Q3. Transaction Revenue: $26.7 million in Q4, slightly up from $26.3 million in Q3. Services Revenue: $26.5 million in Q4, up 33% from $19.9 million in Q3. Credit Card Revenue: $16 million in Q4, up 87% from $8.5 million in Q3. Staking Revenue: $5.1 million in Q4, down 13% from $5.9 million in Q3. Total Operating Expenses: $171.7 million in Q4, flat compared to Q3. Compensation and Headcount Expenses: $72.3 million in Q4, down from $82.5 million in Q3. Sales and Marketing Expenses: $39 million in Q4, up from $32.9 million in Q3. Full-Year Net Revenue: $174 million, up 24% year-over-year from $141 million in 2024. Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA: Loss of $258 million. Full-Year Net Loss: $582.8 million on a GAAP basis. Cash and Cash Equivalents: Approximately $252 million at year-end. Headcount Reduction: Reduced by roughly 30% since the start of 2026. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with GEMI. Is GEMI fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Release Date: March 19, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Gemini Space Station Inc (NASDAQ:GEMI) successfully transitioned to a public company in 2025, marking a significant milestone. The Gemini Credit Card experienced substantial growth, with sign-ups increasing nearly 15 times and revenue rising by 185% year-over-year. The launch of Gemini Predictions positions the company as an early mover in the prediction markets, offering a new revenue stream. AI integration has significantly enhanced productivity, with AI now involved in over 40% of production code changes. The company has streamlined operations by exiting less profitable international markets, focusing on the U.S. to accelerate profitability. The crypto market's volatility, particularly Bitcoin's price fluctuations, poses ongoing challenges for Gemini Space Station Inc (NASDAQ:GEMI). Despite revenue growth, the company reported a full-year adjusted EBITDA loss of $258 million, indicating financial challenges. A 30% workforce reduction was implemented, reflecting cost-cutting measures but potentially impacting employee morale. The company's share price has declined since going public, which could affect investor confidence. Gemini Space Station Inc (NASDAQ:GEM...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-03-20Gemini Fourth-Quarter Loss Widens Amid Crypto Price Meltdown
The Wall Street Journal
Gemini Fourth-Quarter Loss Widens Amid Crypto Price Meltdown
Gemini Space Station, the cryptocurrency exchange launched by the Winklevoss twins, said its fourth-quarter loss widened after the late-2025 meltdown in digital-asset prices. The stock has lost about 82% of its value since peaking in September, when the company made its public debut on the Nasdaq. Wall Street analysts expected the company to lose $1.04 a share on revenue of $50 million.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-03-20Gemini: Q4 Earnings Snapshot
Associated Press Finance
Gemini: Q4 Earnings Snapshot
NEW YORK (AP) — NEW YORK (AP) — Gemini Space Station Inc. (GEMI) on Thursday reported a loss of $140.8 million in its fourth quarter. On a per-share basis, the New York-based company said it had a loss of $1.22. The crypto exchange posted revenue of $60.3 million in the period. For the year, the company reported a loss of $582.8 million, or $15.52 per share. Revenue was reported as $179.6 million. _____ This story was generated by Automated Insights (http://automatedinsights.com/ap) using data from Zacks Investment Research. Access a Zacks stock report on GEMI at https://www.zacks.com/ap/GEMI
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-02-07Crypto Currents: Strategy, Galaxy Digital report Q4 earnings results
TipRanks
Crypto Currents: Strategy, Galaxy Digital report Q4 earnings results
As bitcoin, ethereum and other cryptocurrencies see major legal, institutional, and technological developments, the financial landscape continues to adapt. Stay up on the crypto news that matters with the “Crypto Currents” weekly from The Fly. Also, join us for your essential daily recap, every day at 2 PM ET on FlyCast radio. Unlock hedge fund-level data and powerful investing tools for smarter, sharper decisions Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis and maximize your portfolio's potential CRYPTO EARNINGS: On Thursday, Strategy (MSTR) reported a fourth quarter loss per share of ($42.93) on revenue of $123M, which compared to a loss per share of ($3.03) for the same period last year and analyst revenue consensus of $118.5M. As of December 31, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $2.3B, as compared to $38.1M as of December 31, 2024. “We raised $25.3B of capital in 2025 to advance our Bitcoin treasury strategy, making us the largest equity issuer among U.S. public companies for a second consecutive year. We increased our holdings to 713,502 bitcoins, including 41,002 bitcoins acquired in January 2026 alone. STRC, our flagship Digital Credit instrument, has grown to $3.4B in size, supported by increasing liquidity and declining volatility. Our variable dividend rate mechanism for STRC, currently set at 11.25%, has helped maintain STRC price stability near the $100 stated amount despite a weaker bitcoin price environment. In 2026, we remain focused on expanding STRC to generate amplification and drive growth in Bitcoin Per Share for MSTR common stock investors,” said Phong Le, CEO Additionally on Monday, Strategy announced an update on its bitcoin holdings. The company reported acquiring 855 bitcoin for approximately $75.3B at an average purchase price of $87,974 between January 26 and February 1. As of February 1, Strategy holds 713,502 bitcoin acquired for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $54.26B. Following earnings, BTIG lowered the firm’s price target on Strategy to $250 from $630 and kept a Buy rating on the shares. The company’s Q4 earnings call was overshadowed by bitcoin prices that traded off 8% in the hours leading up to the call, the analyst said. BTIG reminds investors that Strategy’s convertible debt is “extremely over-collateralized” and is covered even if bitcoin prices drew down 80%. Further, the company h...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2025-12-16Evercore ISI Revises Gemini (GEMI) Earnings Forecast, Adjusting Financial Model Forward to FY27
Insider Monkey
Evercore ISI Revises Gemini (GEMI) Earnings Forecast, Adjusting Financial Model Forward to FY27
Gemini Space Station Inc. (NASDAQ:GEMI) is one of the stocks that will double in 2026. On December 5, Goldman Sachs lowered the firm’s price target on Gemini to $17 from $19 and kept a Neutral rating on the shares. Earlier on November 28, Evercore ISI lowered the firm’s price target on Gemini to $15 from $30 and maintained an Outperform rating on the shares. Evercore ISI revised its earnings forecast due to the then-current market conditions and the need to adjust its financial model forward from FY2026 to FY2027. In Q3 2025, Gemini Space Station’s revenue for the quarter was $49.8 million, which represented a sequential increase of 52%, driven primarily by a 45% increase in trading volume and over 100% growth in credit card transaction volume. The quarter’s success was attributed to the strength of Gemini’s model, built on “trust, engagement, and liquidity. Transaction revenue reached $26.3 million, up 26% sequentially, supported by spot trading volumes of $16.4 billion (up 45% quarter-over-quarter). On the product front, Gemini launched the Gemini Wallet, which is a self-custody smart wallet, and expanded multi-network support, including the launch of a Solana edition of the Gemini Credit Card and Solana Staking from Custody for institutions. For 2025, management reaffirmed its medium-term target for Monthly Transacting Users to grow at a 20% to 25% CAGR. They expect services revenue and interest income to reach $60 to $70 million for the full year and project sales and marketing expenses to total $45 to $60 million, reflecting targeted investment in growth. Gemini Space Station Inc. (NASDAQ:GEMI) develops a crypto platform to buy, sell, and store crypto assets. While we acknowledge the potential of GEMI as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you’re looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy Right Now. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

