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FOUR

Shift4 PaymentsB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
If Q2 results meet or exceed the stored third-party bar of $1.19 EPS and $614.9 million revenue, while management supports growth, margin, and integration expectations, the Global Blue/Shift4 One expansion could support a move toward the approximately $59.76 median target and beyond. The earnings bar is not company-confirmed and the actual print is unavailable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Analyst target count, estimate revisions, rating changes, and target changes are unavailable; missing revision data is not positive evidence.
Momentum
12
Value
48
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $59.76 · Bull $68.00 · Bear $44.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $54.81
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d -1.4
Value48 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment85 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst target count, estimate revisions, rating changes, and target changes are unavailable; missing revision data is not positive evidence.
  • • Global Blue integration and Shift4 One rollout may take longer or generate less merchant adoption, volume, or margin benefit than expected. [#IR-2026-07-14]
  • • The primary evidence still leaves the core post-earnings questions unanswered: reported surprise, guidance, margins, cash flow, leverage, and analyst revisions.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-06

Q2 2026 earnings release and conference call

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
12
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.4
Δ21d
-18.3
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
85
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+9.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 11.8 / Value 48.1 / Sentiment 84.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$59.76
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.5B
Beta
1.63
Shares Out
78.96M
P/E (TTM)
30.0
P/S (TTM)
1.46
P/FCF (TTM)
16.42
Rev YoY
+34.0%
EPS YoY
-72.9%
Gross Margin
+28.3%
Op Margin
+9.7%
Net Debt
$3.3B
Current Ratio
1.21
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data