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FOUR

Shift4 PaymentsB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
If Q2 results meet or exceed the stored third-party bar of $1.19 EPS and $614.9 million revenue, while management supports growth, margin, and integration expectations, the Global Blue/Shift4 One expansion could support a move toward the approximately $59.76 median target and beyond. The earnings bar is not company-confirmed and the actual print is unavailable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
What can break
Analyst target count, estimate revisions, rating changes, and target changes are unavailable; missing revision data is not positive evidence.
Momentum
15
Value
48
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $59.76 · Bull $68.00 · Bear $44.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $54.81
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d +2.2
Value48 · Δ7d +0.8
Sentiment83 · Δ7d -0.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst target count, estimate revisions, rating changes, and target changes are unavailable; missing revision data is not positive evidence.
  • • Global Blue integration and Shift4 One rollout may take longer or generate less merchant adoption, volume, or margin benefit than expected. [#IR-2026-07-14]
  • • The primary evidence still leaves the core post-earnings questions unanswered: reported surprise, guidance, margins, cash flow, leverage, and analyst revisions.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-06

Q2 2026 earnings release and conference call

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
15
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
-12.3
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
+8.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 15.2 / Value 48.0 / Sentiment 82.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$59.76
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.5B
Beta
1.63
Shares Out
78.96M
P/E (TTM)
30.0
P/S (TTM)
1.46
P/FCF (TTM)
16.42
Rev YoY
+34.0%
EPS YoY
-72.9%
Gross Margin
+28.3%
Op Margin
+9.7%
Net Debt
$3.3B
Current Ratio
1.21
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data