FORTY

Formula (1985)A

Nasdaq / Software & Services

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$145.00

+9.0% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$120.00

-9.8% vs current

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$98.00

-26.3% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-04-21

AI commentary

Primary-source evidence improved from none to modest after confirming company-issued releases, but forward visibility is still limited. The March 26, 2026 press release supports a stronger balance sheet, retained minority exposure to Sapiens, and solid subsidiary demand, yet the same release shows that reported FY2025 profit is unusually dependent on the Sapiens deal and that continuing-operations earnings were muddied by higher amortization [#PR-2026-03-26]. The peer set remains weak and generic, so this should be treated as a monitoring view with limited forward evidence rather than a standard-conviction software comp thesis.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-21

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-15eventFY2025 Form 20-F filing and dividend details are the next primary-source checkpointMedium impact

Formula said on March 26, 2026 that its board expects to distribute up to $200 million of dividends, subject to approval of the audited FY2025 financial statements, and that further details would follow after filing the FY2025 Form 20-F expected by mid-May 2026; that filing is the cleanest near-term catalyst for confirming post-Sapiens balance-sheet posture, capital allocation, and pro forma disclosures [#PR-2026-03-26].

2026-05-31catalystPost-Sapiens earnings quality normalization can keep near-term sentiment restrainedMedium impact

Reported FY2025 net income was dominated by the Sapiens transaction gain, while continued-operation earnings were weaker on a reported basis because of higher amortization tied to revised useful lives for certain acquired customer-relationship intangibles; until investors get a cleaner base for continuing operations, the stock may trade cautiously despite strong headline profit and cash figures [#PR-2026-03-26] [#PR-2025-11-20].

2026-12-31catalystExecution in Matrix/Magic and broader core subsidiaries must replace lost Sapiens controlHigh impact

Formula's March 26, 2026 release highlighted completion of the Matrix-Magic merger on February 24, 2026, pro forma 2025 revenue of about NIS 8.4 billion for the combined company, and strong demand across cloud, cybersecurity, data, and AI; sustained delivery from these core holdings is the main longer-term upside path now that Sapiens is no longer consolidated [#PR-2026-03-26].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-04-21 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology