B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
+11.3% vs current
FMBH
First Mid BancsharesBNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
At close
2026-08-01
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
-0.2% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
-17.5% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-27
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+13.1
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+15.9
Positive
Pulse
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+42.9
Score
AI commentary
News tone is moderately positive because Q2 earnings and revenue exceeded consensus. Zacks reported a 1.9% one-month return versus 0.4% for the S&P 500 and a 24.4% year-to-date gain versus 9.6% for the index, but the packet does not provide a clean post-release daily reaction. Available analyst framing was Hold/mixed before the print, with no confirmed post-print revisions or target changes; therefore this remains a cautious monitoring view. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-23]
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-27
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-10-25eventTwo Rivers integration and capital returnMedium impact
The company reported successful completion of the Two Rivers merger, growth in deposits, 21,872 share repurchases, a $0.01 dividend increase, and repayment of higher-cost subordinated debt. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23]
2026-10-25catalystQ2 earnings beat and post-print digestionMedium impact
First Mid reported adjusted EPS of $1.26 and adjusted quarterly net income of $33.4 million for Q2 2026; the filed release also reported 3.79% net interest margin, higher deposits, and improved tangible book value. Zacks reported EPS and revenue beats versus consensus. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-23]
2026-12-31catalystRecurring earnings and credit stabilizationHigh impact
Potential upside depends on sustaining merger-related earnings contribution, repricing benefits, and fee revenue while containing funding costs and agricultural-credit stress. The release reported stable allowance coverage, lower non-performing loans, but continued strained agricultural cash flows. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology