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FMBH

First Mid BancsharesC
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 beat, successful Two Rivers integration, deposit growth, improved tangible book value, and shareholder distributions support a constructive earnings trajectory. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.4.
What can break
Agricultural-credit stress and downgrades could increase provisions or losses.
Momentum
64
Value
57
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $52.00 · Bull $58.00 · Bear $43.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-16 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-16

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-16. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $56.50
Why
Momentum64 · Δ7d +5.2
Value57 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -5.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Agricultural-credit stress and downgrades could increase provisions or losses.
  • • Deposit pricing competition could pressure net interest margin and funding costs.
  • • Funding costs increased, loan balances declined, and agricultural downgrades reflected strained cash flows.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-25

Two Rivers integration and capital return

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
64
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.2
Δ21d
-2.4
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.4
Δ21d
-6.0
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 64.0 / Value 56.6 / Sentiment 62.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.38B
Beta
0.90
Shares Out
26.6M
P/E (TTM)
10.8
P/S (TTM)
2.72
P/FCF (TTM)
9.64
Rev YoY
+22.7%
EPS YoY
+6.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+25.5%
Net Debt
$507.16M
Current Ratio
0.11
As of 2026-09-16 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data