B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FHN
First HorizonBNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$24.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$19.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-10-20
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+4.6
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+4.6
Mixed
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-18.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+62.6
Score
AI commentary
Post-print evidence is mixed rather than decisively bullish: adjusted EPS modestly beat one reported consensus measure, revenue missed, and Q3 GAAP results absorbed the sale charge. FHN closed at $22.86 on October 15, up about 0.8% from October 14, but the packet's October 19 adjusted close was $22.73, so the initial gain did not clearly hold. Historical prices Analyst revisions through October 16 were split, with one target increase and multiple cuts; no verified later estimate-revision series is available. Morgan Stanley Raymond James
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-20
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-11-15eventMortgage portfolio sale settlementMedium impact
First Horizon agreed to sell approximately $4.5 billion of lower-yielding residential mortgages and expects settlement early in Q4 2026. Management estimates roughly 4% EPS accretion and 150 basis points of ROTCE improvement in 2027, before loan redeployment. Settlement and realized economics are the immediate tests. [#8-K-2026-10-15] [#SEC-8K-2026-10-15] Earnings presentation
2026-12-31eventCapital return after balance-sheet resetMedium impact
Only $4 million was repurchased in Q3, leaving $661 million authorized. The sale is intended to support repurchases, but CET1 fell to 10.3% and management's near-term target is 10.25%–10.5%; the pace of actual buybacks, not authorization alone, will determine the shareholder-return benefit. [#8-K-2026-10-15] Earnings presentation
2026-12-31catalystLowered revenue outlook tests earnings qualityMedium impact
Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.53 modestly exceeded the $0.52 FactSet consensus, but adjusted FTE revenue of $883 million missed expectations and management moved 2026 adjusted revenue growth to the low end of its prior 3%–7% range. Subsequent results must show whether commercial lending and client deposits offset softer countercyclical revenue. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-15] Company outlook Consensus comparison
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-10-20 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology