B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$27.50
+14.6% vs current
FHN
First HorizonCNYSE / Banks
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
+4.2% vs current
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
-12.5% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-04-15
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+16.9
Positive
Company
+23.6
Positive
Macro
+17.9
Positive
Pulse
-34.8
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+50.1
Score
AI commentary
Tentative monitoring view. The April 15, 2026 update keeps the story fundamentally stable rather than newly accelerating: returns, credit, and capital are supportive, but forward evidence is still limited and does not justify standard-conviction upside.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-15
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-06-30catalystCapital deployment remains a support but less of a fresh surpriseMedium impact
Management repurchased $233 million of stock in 1Q26 at a weighted average price of $24.54 and still had $765 million remaining under the authorization while targeting CET1 around 10.5%, which can support the shares if quarterly earnings keep replenishing capital [#8-K-2026-04-15].
2026-07-15eventQ1 2026 print reset with reiterated 2026 guideMedium impact
First Horizon's April 15, 2026 earnings materials showed adjusted EPS of $0.53, CET1 of 10.53%, and reiterated 2026 expectations for 3-7% adjusted revenue growth, roughly flat adjusted expenses, 0.15%-0.25% net charge-offs, and CET1 near 10.5%; the next few months should test whether that outlook is holding rather than expanding materially [#8-K-2026-04-15].
2026-10-15catalystFunding-plus-credit execution is the real medium-term proof pointMedium impact
The more durable driver is whether FHN can keep modest NIM resilience, solid deposit stability, and benign credit together: 1Q26 NIM was 3.52%, deposits were $66.5 billion, 66% of deposits were insured or collateralized, net charge-offs were 0.18%, and management continues to frame an intermediate-term 15%+ adjusted ROTCE path [#8-K-2026-04-15].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-04-15 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology