RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

FERG

Ferguson EnterprisesB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
June-quarter sales grew 4.6%, adjusted EPS grew 5.3%, and guidance increased; non-residential orders and FloWorks could extend growth. These are August results, not a September earnings beat.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
FloWorks integration and synergy realization remain unproven. Ferguson acquisition release
Momentum
71
Value
55
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $230.00 · Bull $260.00 · Bear $190.00Analysis 2026-09-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $282.42
Why
Momentum71 · Δ7d +0.0
Value55 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +2.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • FloWorks integration and synergy realization remain unproven. Ferguson acquisition release
  • • Residential construction and repair markets remained soft; gross margin declined 20 basis points in the June quarter. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
  • • Residential construction and repair demand remained soft, gross margin fell 20 basis points, and FloWorks adds integration risk.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-09

November 9 results: test raised guidance and FloWorks contribution

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
71
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+6.2
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
-9.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 70.8 / Value 55.2 / Sentiment 55.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$260.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$230.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$190.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$43.89B
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
193.45M
P/E (TTM)
23.0
P/S (TTM)
1.43
P/FCF (TTM)
44.77
Rev YoY
+27.3%
EPS YoY
+148.5%
Gross Margin
+30.0%
Op Margin
+9.6%
Net Debt
$5.29B
Current Ratio
1.73
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data