B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$260.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FERG
Ferguson EnterprisesBNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$230.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$190.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-09-25
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-
Unavailable
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+57.7
Score
AI commentary
FERG rose from $216.14 on September 21 to $221.17 on September 22, then closed at the packet's $220.17 anchor on September 24. Because Ferguson did not report earnings September 22, that move cannot be characterized as a post-earnings reaction. Price history News is modestly constructive on FloWorks, but no earnings-linked analyst revision was found. September analyst ratings cited above predate the purported print; social, options, short-interest and employee measures are unavailable.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-25
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-11-09eventNovember 9 results: test raised guidance and FloWorks contributionMedium impact
Ferguson lists November 9—not the queue's September 22 date—for results covering September 30. Its last confirmed earnings release raised 2026 sales guidance to mid-single-digit growth and adjusted operating-margin guidance to 9.5%–9.8%; that guidance excluded FloWorks. The next report can test execution and initial acquisition contribution. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10] Ferguson earnings release
2026-11-09eventFloWorks integration evidenceMedium impact
Ferguson confirmed FloWorks closed August 31, adding technical valve and flow-control capabilities. Subsequent disclosures need to establish contribution, integration costs and synergies rather than assume them. [#IR-2026-09-01] Ferguson acquisition release
2027-06-30catalystNon-residential orders converting to revenueMedium impact
June-quarter non-residential revenue rose 8%, with management citing growth in open order volumes and strong large-project bidding. Sustained conversion could support growth, but the release does not quantify backlog or guarantee conversion. Ferguson earnings release
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-09-25 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology