B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$285.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FERG
Ferguson EnterprisesBNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 release showed solid sales and adjusted EPS growth, higher FY2026 guidance, continued non-residential strength, and a completed FloWorks acquisition that broadens technical capabilities and secular-market exposure [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10] [#IR-2026-09-01].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.5.
What can break
Acquisition financing could increase interest expense and leverage sensitivity; disclosed facilities include up to $700 million of bridge capacity and $900 million of term-loan commitments [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
Momentum
24
Value
56
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $245.00 · Bull $285.00 · Bear $185.00Analysis 2026-09-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $288.94
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d -40.0
Value56 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment74 · Δ7d -6.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Acquisition financing could increase interest expense and leverage sensitivity; disclosed facilities include up to $700 million of bridge capacity and $900 million of term-loan commitments [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
- • Adjusted operating margin declined 10 basis points year over year in Q2 despite revenue growth [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
- • The thesis is vulnerable to weaker margin conversion, residential or Canadian softness, integration delays, and higher financing costs after FloWorks.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-02
FloWorks integration and first post-close contribution
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
24
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-40.0
Δ21d
-35.0
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.5
Δ21d
+0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 24.4 / Value 56.5 / Sentiment 74.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$47.39B
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
193.45M
P/E (TTM)
23.0
P/S (TTM)
1.43
P/FCF (TTM)
44.77
Rev YoY
+27.3%
EPS YoY
+148.5%
Gross Margin
+30.0%
Op Margin
+9.6%
Net Debt
$5.29B
Current Ratio
1.73
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data