B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$176.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FCN
FTI ConsultingCNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record second-quarter revenue, 5.3% year-over-year growth, adjusted EPS modestly above the prior-year level, and operating cash flow of $152.3 million support the view that FCN's diversified advisory platform remains resilient despite event-driven volatility [#SEC-8K-2026-07-31]. The deterministic prior is positive, and the packet's $175.50 median target implies approximately 24.5% upside from the $141 anchor.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA margin contracted to 10.5% from 11.8% despite record second-quarter revenue [#SEC-8K-2026-07-31].
Momentum
41
Value
59
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $154.00 · Bull $176.00 · Bear $118.00Analysis 2026-09-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $165.50
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d +23.1
Value59 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -6.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted EBITDA margin contracted to 10.5% from 11.8% despite record second-quarter revenue [#SEC-8K-2026-07-31].
- • Extraordinary litigation-related expenses reduced second-quarter EPS by $0.17 and could remain a source of uncertainty [#SEC-8K-2026-07-31].
- • Revenue growth did not prevent net income from falling to $57.8 million from $71.7 million or adjusted EBITDA margin from contracting 130 basis points.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · BMO
Third-quarter margin and earnings checkpoint
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
41
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+23.1
Δ21d
+29.8
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-1.9
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.1
Δ21d
-24.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 40.8 / Value 59.0 / Sentiment 51.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$154.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$4.34B
Beta
0.08
Shares Out
27.61M
P/E (TTM)
22.8
P/S (TTM)
1.50
P/FCF (TTM)
126.02
Rev YoY
+5.3%
EPS YoY
-6.7%
Gross Margin
+31.8%
Op Margin
+9.7%
Net Debt
$361.63M
Current Ratio
2.03
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data