B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$5.40
+42.9% vs current
EVH
Evolent HealthANYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-03
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$4.70
+24.3% vs current
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$3.30
-12.7% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-26.5
Negative
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-26.5
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+64.8
Score
AI commentary
Primary evidence supports a cautious monitoring view rather than a clean post-earnings upgrade. Trusted news framed the print as a revenue miss, while company materials emphasized reiterated guidance and new Q3 revenue agreements. As of May 8, 2026, EVH traded around $4.35 versus the May 7 close of $4.27, a modest positive T+1 reaction rather than a decisive rerating. Confirmed analyst target or estimate revisions were not available in the packet, so low coverage and thin revision visibility keep confidence muted.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-08eventQ1 print was mixed but full-year guidance was reiteratedMedium impact
Evolent reported Q1 2026 revenue of $496.2 million, a GAAP net loss of $26.6 million, adjusted EBITDA of $22.1 million, and reiterated FY2026 guidance for $2.4-$2.6 billion of revenue and about $110-$140 million of adjusted EBITDA [#8-K-2026-05-07].
2026-08-01catalystMargin compression and elevated medical cost dynamics remain the near-term checkHigh impact
Despite a narrower GAAP loss, adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 4.4% from 7.6% a year earlier and reported medical expense ratio was 93.3%, leaving the stock sensitive to any sign that utilization or contract economics stay unfavorable [#8-K-2026-05-07].
2026-09-30eventQ3 launches and payer expansion are the clearest forward revenue hookHigh impact
Management disclosed two new revenue agreements: an advanced imaging contract covering about 4.5 million lives and an oncology/cardiology expansion expected to generate over $200 million of annual revenue, both targeted to go live in Q3 subject to state regulatory approvals [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology