B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$130.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ESTC
ElasticANYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$108.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-09-09
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.7
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+93.7
Score
AI commentary
News tone is positive following the Q1 beat, with stored secondary coverage also citing raised estimates and a neutral analyst target revision context. Social coverage, options data and employee sentiment are unavailable, so confidence should rely on the primary earnings release and remain moderate rather than high.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-09
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-09-30catalystExecution credibility and insider-sale overhangHigh impact
The strong quarter must prove durable after prior execution concerns cited in stored secondary earnings coverage. Multiple open-market sales by CTO/director Banon Shay on September 3-4 create a sentiment overhang, but do not by themselves indicate operating deterioration. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-09-02] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-08]
2026-10-31eventQ1 FY27 beat and Q2 outlookHigh impact
Elastic reported Q1 FY27 revenue of $478 million, up 15%, cRPO growth of 21%, non-GAAP operating margin of 16.2%, and said it beat guidance across key metrics. Q2 revenue guidance is $486-$487 million with approximately 19% non-GAAP operating margin. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27]
2026-12-31catalystEnterprise AI, security and observability expansionHigh impact
Demand indicators include more than 1,800 customers above $100,000 ACV, approximately 111% net expansion, and product expansion across AI search, security and observability. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology