ERAS

ErascaF

Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences

At close

2026-06-03

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$13.00

-3.6% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$8.50

-36.9% vs current

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$5.50

-59.2% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-04-29

AI commentary

Headline tone turned sharply negative after the April 27, 2026 filing, with April 28 coverage emphasizing the patient death and large sell-off rather than the response-rate data. Primary sources support both the efficacy signal and the safety issue, but low coverage, unavailable fresh analyst revisions, and a negative deterministic prior argue for a cautious monitoring stance instead of treating the drop as a clear dislocation buy.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-29

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-15catalystPost-data safety digestion can keep ERAS-0015 under pressureHigh impact

The April 27, 2026 8-K paired strong preliminary response data with a Grade 3 pneumonitis case that progressed to Grade 5 after withdrawal of supportive care, which can continue to dominate near-term investor framing despite otherwise favorable early activity and tolerability metrics [#8-K-2026-04-27].

2026-12-31catalystERAS-4001 initial Phase 1 monotherapy data remains the next cleaner pipeline readoutHigh impact

The company said preliminary Phase 1 monotherapy data from BOREALIS-1 for pan-KRAS inhibitor ERAS-4001 is expected in the second half of 2026, giving investors a separate efficacy readout not tied to the April ERAS-0015 safety debate [#8-K-2026-04-27].

2027-06-30catalystERAS-0015 expansion and combination data are now the bigger proof pointHigh impact

Erasca said it initiated ERAS-0015 monotherapy expansion and combination dose-escalation cohorts ahead of prior guidance, with monotherapy expansion data and combination dose-escalation data expected in the first half of 2027; stronger durability and combination evidence would be needed to overcome cross-trial-comparison skepticism [#8-K-2026-04-27].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-04-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology