B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
EPRT
Essential Properties Realty TrustCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case assumes continued accretive acquisitions, steady same-store NOI growth, upward analyst revisions toward the high-$30s/low-$40s consensus, and stable payout coverage leading to re-rating.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.5.
What can break
Concentration risk from large tenants or property types
Momentum
39
Value
56
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $35.34 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $27.00Analysis 2026-02-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $37.18
Why
Momentum39 · Δ7d +3.9
Value56 · Δ7d -
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +8.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Concentration risk from large tenants or property types
- • Occupancy or tenant credit deterioration
- • Bear case assumes weaker-than-expected FFO, tenant stress or cap-rate expansion, causing downside below current levels as investors re-price dividend reliability and growth prospects.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-07
Quarterly FFO / earnings release
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
39
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
+2.5
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.5
Δ21d
+6.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 38.5 / Value 56.3 / Sentiment 65.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$35.34
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.79B
Beta
1.01
Shares Out
216.27M
P/E (TTM)
23.9
P/S (TTM)
11.08
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-6.92
Rev YoY
+20.2%
EPS YoY
+7.8%
Gross Margin
+71.5%
Op Margin
+64.8%
Net Debt
$2.46B
Current Ratio
3.19
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data