B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
EPRT
Essential Properties Realty TrustCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q3 AFFO per share rose 6% year over year to $0.51, occupancy was 99.6%, and management raised 2026 guidance while introducing 2027 AFFO guidance. If acquisition yields continue to exceed funding costs, the company could deliver the projected per-share growth.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
GAAP net income per share fell 18% year over year in Q3 even as AFFO per share rose 6%; asset impairments and other items can materially affect GAAP results. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21]
Momentum
30
Value
59
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $26.00 · Bull $32.00 · Bear $21.50Analysis 2026-10-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-30 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-30
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-30
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-30. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.39
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d +0.2
Value59 · Δ7d -
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +12.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • GAAP net income per share fell 18% year over year in Q3 even as AFFO per share rose 6%; asset impairments and other items can materially affect GAAP results. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21]
- • Investment spreads may compress if the cost of capital rises faster than acquisition cap rates; management explicitly tied 2027 discipline to that cost. Company Q3 release
- • The print was not an unqualified beat: Stifel reported AFFO per share in line with Street expectations but $0.01 below its own estimate, and cut its target from $36 to $32.50 while retaining Buy.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Delivery of raised 2026 AFFO and investment guidance
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
30
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+6.7
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.0
Δ21d
-39.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 29.6 / Value 58.8 / Sentiment 52.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-29
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$5.94B
Beta
1.01
Shares Out
220.28M
P/E (TTM)
23.9
P/S (TTM)
11.08
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-5.94
Rev YoY
+20.2%
EPS YoY
+7.8%
Gross Margin
+71.5%
Op Margin
+64.8%
Net Debt
$2.46B
Current Ratio
3.19
As of 2026-10-30 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data