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EMBJ

EmbraerB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record backlog, improving deliveries, higher 2026 targets, and the dated LATAM E195-E2 delivery program support upside if production leveling and order conversion persist [#PR-2026-10-02] [#PR-2026-08-10] [#PR-2026-10-08].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Defense contract execution, currency exposure, and potential tariff changes could affect results.
Momentum
71
Value
61
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $73.00 · Bull $88.00 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-10-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $94.71
Why
Momentum71 · Δ7d -21.9
Value61 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +2.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Defense contract execution, currency exposure, and potential tariff changes could affect results.
  • • Late supplier deliveries and unfavorable commercial-aircraft customer mix may pressure production efficiency and margins; these concerns come from a third-party earnings-call summary.
  • • The raised targets partly reflect an extraordinary tax credit and tariff exemption.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-10

Raised 2026 margin and cash-flow targets

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
71
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-21.9
Δ21d
-29.5
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
-5.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 70.8 / Value 60.6 / Sentiment 56.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$73.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$12.78B
Beta
0.10
Shares Out
177.96M
P/E (TTM)
38.5
P/S (TTM)
1.67
P/FCF (TTM)
21.06
Rev YoY
+23.8%
EPS YoY
+179.2%
Gross Margin
+17.9%
Op Margin
+8.3%
Net Debt
$86.42M
Current Ratio
1.44
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data