B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
EMBJ
EmbraerBNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$73.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-10-09
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.2
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+55.6
Score
AI commentary
Company releases confirm stronger 3Q26 deliveries, the earlier guidance increase, and a specific LATAM delivery schedule. The October 8 anchor does not establish a post-release market reaction. Analyst revisions, options, short-interest and usable social-sentiment data are unavailable; zeros in the sentiment fields denote unavailable data, not measured neutral readings. The deterministic prior remains neutral, with high uncertainty (0.881) and low evidence-quality score (0.08), supporting monitoring rather than a high-conviction long.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-09
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-10eventRaised 2026 margin and cash-flow targetsMedium impact
Following 2Q26 results, Embraer raised its adjusted EBIT-margin target to 10%–10.6% from 8.7%–9.3% and adjusted free-cash-flow guidance excluding Eve to at least $400 million from at least $200 million. The company attributed part of the improvement to an extraordinary tax credit and tariff exemption, so recurring performance needs confirmation [#PR-2026-08-10]. Company release.
2026-10-02catalystThird-quarter deliveries strengthen the execution testMedium impact
Embraer reported a record 66 aircraft delivered in 3Q26, up 6% year over year, and 175 in the first nine months, up 14%. It maintained 2026 delivery expectations of 80–85 commercial aircraft and 160–170 executive jets. The remaining test is whether deliveries translate into margin and cash flow [#PR-2026-10-02]. Company release.
2026-12-31catalystLATAM E195-E2 delivery milestoneMedium impact
Embraer said on October 8 that delivery of LATAM Brazil's first E195-E2 had begun and that 12 aircraft were scheduled for delivery by year-end 2026. Completion of that customer-specific schedule is a near-term test of E2 backlog conversion, not evidence that all 12 have been delivered [#PR-2026-10-08]. Company release.
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-10-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology