EMBJ

EmbraerA

NYSE / Capital Goods

At close

2026-07-18

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$84.00

+31.1% vs current

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$70.00

+9.2% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$53.00

-17.3% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-07-17

AI commentary

Official Embraer reporting confirms the 2Q26 delivery improvement and reaffirmed 2026 ranges. News tone is constructive on deliveries, backlog, and E2 orders, but the deterministic packet assigns neutral direction, negative expected returns, and 0.931 uncertainty. Social, options, short-interest, and analyst-revision evidence is unavailable, so this remains a monitoring view rather than a high-conviction bullish call.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-17

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-07-02event2Q26 delivery acceleration and guidance reaffirmationMedium impact

Embraer delivered 65 aircraft in 2Q26, up 48% quarter over quarter and 7% year over year, while maintaining 2026 delivery guidance of 80-85 commercial aircraft and 160-170 executive aircraft [#IR-2026-07-02].

2026-12-31catalystSecond-half delivery executionMedium impact

The next material operating test is whether production leveling and supply execution support the remaining 2026 commercial and executive delivery targets after 109 aircraft delivered in 1H26 [#IR-2026-07-02].

2027-06-30catalystE2 orderbook conversionHigh impact

Azorra added a firm order for 15 E195-E2 aircraft plus purchase rights for 15 more, taking total E2 orders above 500; the longer-term catalyst is conversion of this order momentum into deliveries and cash flow [#IR-2026-06-05].

View full catalyst timeline

Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-07-17 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology