EMBJ

EmbraerB

NYSE / Capital Goods

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$92.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$75.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$57.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-09-06

AI commentary

Official Embraer investor-relations communication confirms record 2Q26 revenue, adjusted EBIT, free cash flow, higher 2026 targets, improved deliveries, and record backlog [#PR-2026-08-10]. However, the deterministic prior remains neutral with negative forward-return estimates and high uncertainty. Social, options, short-interest, employee, analyst-revision, and sustained post-print price-reaction data are unavailable; the view is therefore a cautious monitoring thesis rather than a high-conviction long.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-06

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-08-10event2Q26 record results and higher FY26 targetsMedium impact

Embraer reported record 2Q26 revenue of $2.2 billion, adjusted EBIT of $296.9 million, adjusted free cash flow excluding Eve of $401 million, and raised 2026 adjusted EBIT-margin guidance to 10%-10.6% from 8.7%-9.3% and free-cash-flow guidance to at least $400 million from at least $200 million [#PR-2026-08-10]. Consensus surprise and sustained post-print price reaction remain unavailable.

2026-12-31catalystSecond-half delivery and supply-chain executionMedium impact

Embraer delivered 65 aircraft in 2Q26 and 109 in 1H26, with delivery cadence improving year over year. The next test is converting the stronger cadence into full-year delivery, margin, and cash-flow execution while supplier delays continue to improve [#IR-2026-07-02].

2027-06-30catalystRecord backlog and E2 order-book conversionHigh impact

Backlog reached a record $34.5 billion, up 16% year over year, with commercial backlog at $15.1 billion and the E2 program above 500 firm orders. Upside depends on converting the order book into deliveries, earnings, and cash flow [#IR-2026-07-24].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-09-06 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology