B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ELF
e.l.f BeautyFNYSE / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The company’s FY2027 outlook calls for 12-14% net sales growth, higher adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS of $3.27-$3.32. Management also cited growth across all five brands, with rhode and Naturium particularly strong [#IR-2026-05-20].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
FY2026 ended with $841.7 million of total debt and $289.7 million of cash, versus $256.7 million and $148.7 million, respectively, a materially higher leverage burden [#IR-2026-05-20].
Momentum
91
Value
47
Sentiment
16
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $73.00 · Bull $88.00 · Bear $60.00Analysis 2026-07-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $114.06
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d +3.5
Value47 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment16 · Δ7d +0.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FY2026 ended with $841.7 million of total debt and $289.7 million of cash, versus $256.7 million and $148.7 million, respectively, a materially higher leverage burden [#IR-2026-05-20].
- • Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA declined 28% year over year, and full-year gross margin declined approximately 50 basis points primarily due to higher tariffs [#IR-2026-05-20].
- • The secondary Q1 consensus points to an EPS decline despite revenue growth.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-14
FY2027 outlook execution
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
91
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.5
Δ21d
+3.4
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
16
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-9.3
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 90.9 / Value 47.4 / Sentiment 15.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$73.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$6.74B
Beta
1.69
Shares Out
59.01M
P/E (TTM)
54.5
P/S (TTM)
3.30
P/FCF (TTM)
32.16
Rev YoY
+35.5%
EPS YoY
+93.1%
Gross Margin
+69.2%
Op Margin
+12.0%
Net Debt
$627.22M
Current Ratio
2.55
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data