B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
+19.4% vs current
ELF
e.l.f BeautyBNYSE / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
At close
2026-07-20
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$73.00
-0.9% vs current
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
-18.6% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-16
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-
Unavailable
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+35.5
Score
AI commentary
The primary company source provides a quantified FY2027 outlook and brand-level operating context, improving the evidence base, but the company’s investor-events page shows no confirmed upcoming event. No verified post-print price reaction or analyst target and estimate revisions are available. This remains a cautious, lower-conviction monitoring view.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-16
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-10-14eventFY2027 outlook executionMedium impact
The company provided FY2027 guidance for net sales of $1.835-$1.865 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $379-$385 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.27-$3.32 versus FY2026 actuals of $1.636 billion, $335 million, and $3.13, respectively [#IR-2026-05-20]. The company has not confirmed the date of its next earnings event.
2027-07-16catalystQ1 FY2027 pre-print tensionMedium impact
A stored Zacks excerpt expects quarterly EPS of $0.73, down 18% year over year, alongside revenue of $424.55 million, up 20%; the EPS estimate was revised 1.2% higher over 30 days. This is secondary consensus context, not company guidance, and the company has not confirmed a reporting date.
2027-07-16catalystBrand portfolio and rhode/Naturium runwayHigh impact
Management reported that all five brands grew in FY2026, with rhode and Naturium particularly strong, and cited further whitespace across brands, categories, and geographies [#IR-2026-05-20]. The opportunity is credible but lacks quantified near-term conversion evidence.
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-16 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology