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ELF

e.l.f BeautyD
NYSE / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The company’s FY2027 outlook calls for 12-14% net sales growth, higher adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS of $3.27-$3.32. Management also cited growth across all five brands, with rhode and Naturium particularly strong [#IR-2026-05-20].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
FY2026 ended with $841.7 million of total debt and $289.7 million of cash, versus $256.7 million and $148.7 million, respectively, a materially higher leverage burden [#IR-2026-05-20].
Momentum
99
Value
50
Sentiment
26
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $73.00 · Bull $88.00 · Bear $60.00Analysis 2026-07-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $98.56
Why
Momentum99 · Δ7d +0.1
Value50 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment26 · Δ7d -2.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • FY2026 ended with $841.7 million of total debt and $289.7 million of cash, versus $256.7 million and $148.7 million, respectively, a materially higher leverage burden [#IR-2026-05-20].
  • • Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA declined 28% year over year, and full-year gross margin declined approximately 50 basis points primarily due to higher tariffs [#IR-2026-05-20].
  • • The secondary Q1 consensus points to an EPS decline despite revenue growth.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-14

FY2027 outlook execution

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
99
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+4.1
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.4
Sentiment
26
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-2.1
Δ21d
-16.1
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 98.6 / Value 49.6 / Sentiment 26.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$73.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.53B
Beta
1.69
Shares Out
59.01M
P/E (TTM)
54.5
P/S (TTM)
3.30
P/FCF (TTM)
32.16
Rev YoY
+35.5%
EPS YoY
+93.1%
Gross Margin
+69.2%
Op Margin
+12.0%
Net Debt
$627.22M
Current Ratio
2.55
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data