B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
DIN
Dine Brands GlobalDNYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The cleanest bullish read is that Dine produced a modest earnings beat and better year-over-year comp trajectory while keeping 2026 guidance intact, suggesting its value positioning and dual-brand pipeline are offsetting a tougher consumer backdrop [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
What can break
Adjusted free cash flow turned negative in Q1 as remodels, dual-brand conversions, and company-owned restaurant investments raised CapEx and support costs [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Momentum
66
Value
47
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $31.00 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $36.33
Why
Momentum66 · Δ7d +10.4
Value47 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment49 · Δ7d +1.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted free cash flow turned negative in Q1 as remodels, dual-brand conversions, and company-owned restaurant investments raised CapEx and support costs [#8-K-2026-05-06].
- • Commodity inflation, especially higher beef costs, remains a margin risk for both Applebee's and IHOP.
- • The bearish read is that the beat was low quality: revenue growth was helped by acquired company-owned units, franchise revenue excluding advertising declined on weaker proprietary product sales and international performance, and EBITDA/free cash flow moved the wrong way as consumer and cost pressures persisted.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Q1 print beat low bar while full-year guidance was reiterated
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
66
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+10.4
Δ21d
+47.8
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.5
Δ21d
-13.1
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 65.9 / Value 47.0 / Sentiment 48.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$403.7M
Beta
0.98
Shares Out
12.66M
P/E (TTM)
15.5
P/S (TTM)
0.58
P/FCF (TTM)
8.71
Rev YoY
+4.4%
EPS YoY
-60.9%
Gross Margin
+38.4%
Op Margin
+14.5%
Net Debt
$1.42B
Current Ratio
0.86
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data