B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
+13.3% vs current
DIN
Dine Brands GlobalBNYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-11
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
+3.3% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
-20.0% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.1
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+33.4
Score
AI commentary
Post-earnings tone is mixed rather than clearly bullish. Primary-company disclosures showed a modest beat and reiterated guidance, while AP framed results as ahead of expectations on EPS. But follow-up coverage emphasized EBITDA and free-cash-flow pressure plus a cautious consumer backdrop. As of the 2026-05-07 anchor close of $28.29, there is no strong evidence here of a decisive post-print rerating, and delayed analyst revision data was not reliably available by T+3, so this remains a cautious monitoring view.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-06eventQ1 print beat low bar while full-year guidance was reiteratedMedium impact
Dine reported Q1 2026 revenue of $225.2M, adjusted EPS of $1.07, Applebee's domestic comps of +1.9%, flat IHOP comps, and reiterated 2026 guidance including adjusted EBITDA of $220M-$230M [#8-K-2026-05-06]. AP said adjusted EPS beat the average Zacks estimate of $1.00 from three analysts.
2026-08-05catalystProfitability and cash-flow compression could cap multiple expansionHigh impact
Despite the revenue beat, adjusted EBITDA fell to $50.8M from $54.7M, operating cash flow fell to $7.5M from $16.1M, and adjusted free cash flow turned negative $3.0M as Dine funded remodels, dual-brand conversions, and company-owned restaurant initiatives [#8-K-2026-05-06]. Management also flagged pressure on lower-income consumers and higher beef costs on the call.
2026-12-31catalystDual-brand and remodel rollout remains the main self-help leverHigh impact
Management said it has 43 dual-brand restaurants open, 13 under construction, remains on track for about 80 domestic dual-brand units by year-end, and still expects at least 50 domestic dual-branded openings in 2026 [#8-K-2026-05-06]. Early sales-lift commentary is encouraging, but realization still depends on execution and franchisee uptake.
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology