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DIN

Dine Brands GlobalC
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The cleanest bullish read is that Dine produced a modest earnings beat and better year-over-year comp trajectory while keeping 2026 guidance intact, suggesting its value positioning and dual-brand pipeline are offsetting a tougher consumer backdrop [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.7.
What can break
Adjusted free cash flow turned negative in Q1 as remodels, dual-brand conversions, and company-owned restaurant investments raised CapEx and support costs [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Momentum
30
Value
47
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $31.00 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $36.50
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d -21.6
Value47 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment67 · Δ7d +11.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted free cash flow turned negative in Q1 as remodels, dual-brand conversions, and company-owned restaurant investments raised CapEx and support costs [#8-K-2026-05-06].
  • • Commodity inflation, especially higher beef costs, remains a margin risk for both Applebee's and IHOP.
  • • The bearish read is that the beat was low quality: revenue growth was helped by acquired company-owned units, franchise revenue excluding advertising declined on weaker proprietary product sales and international performance, and EBITDA/free cash flow moved the wrong way as consumer and cost pressures persisted.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-06

Q1 print beat low bar while full-year guidance was reiterated

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
30
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-21.6
Δ21d
-33.4
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-6.4
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.7
Δ21d
+16.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 29.8 / Value 47.4 / Sentiment 67.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$442.94M
Beta
0.98
Shares Out
12.66M
P/E (TTM)
15.5
P/S (TTM)
0.58
P/FCF (TTM)
8.71
Rev YoY
+4.4%
EPS YoY
-60.9%
Gross Margin
+38.4%
Op Margin
+14.5%
Net Debt
$1.42B
Current Ratio
0.86
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data